Is Newt the Reagan of 2012?

As we sit and wait with bated breath to found out if the disgraced former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, will pull off an epic turnaround of fortunes and defeat Mittens Romney Inc in a state which he held a twenty point polling lead nary a week ago, I felt compelled to do a little research for some historical references.  Now, I'll qualify this discussion with my opinion that I don't think Newt will wind up with the nomination...his fundamentals just aren't that strong in terms of his ability to sustain a national campaign.  However, if Newt does win South Carolina, the possibility of upsetting Romney's path towards the nomination seems a lot clearer than it was just one week ago.

So, what are we looking at for November?  Well, with Newton in the race, all current polls show Obama beating him like a bongo at an Occupy Wall Street protest.  The current RCP average shows a +11 lead for the President, with only two polls in a year of polling that show Gingrich ever having a lead against Obama.  While certainly encouraging, the fact that Newt ever came close or ahead of the President in polls shows that the possibility exists he could do it again, and if it were to happen at the right time, well, you and I could be looking into work visas in Canada in the not so distant future.

I suppose, in looking at the race, the most likely cited comparison will be between Newt and that of the 20th century Jesus, Ronald Reagan.  And, if the comparison were to be made, it wouldn't be entirely out of context.  After all, in an article on March 23, 1980, EJ Dionne cited a poll which showed President Carter drubbing Reagan by a whopping 53-34, with a 34% favorability rating for the former California Governor.  That's actually worse than a Reuter/Ipsos poll earlier this month showing a 53-38 margin for the President over Gingrich.  The same poll showed that a 47-42 lead in a hypothetical Ford-Carter matchup...not too dissimilar from some of Romney's leads. I wouldn't be surprised if the Gingrich folks pull out this poll to bolster their credentials in the coming weeks as the Mittens onslaught gets into full gear.

While relevant to point out, I also think that is about where the comparison ends.  Keep in mind, these polls were before the political realignment that followed the Reagan election.  Indeed, Dionne cited Carter's strength in the Midwest and South in contrast to Reagan's backing in the West.  Now its largely a reverse of fortunes for the two parties, and its very difficult to see a similar realignment coming in the near future seeing as this realignment was largely due to Conservative Democrats and Liberal Republicans swapping party affiliations over the coming decades. 

In addition, just a month after this poll was done, Carter had a 21% job approval rating, largely due to an 18% reported annualized inflation rate.  In comparison, the annual inflation rate in 2011 was 3% for all items, and .1% for December.  Granted, food and energy inflation rates were higher, 4.7 and 6.6% respectively, which may have a greater influence on electorate moods than inflation on other items, however there is little indication we'll face the sort of massive economic pressures that Americans in 1980 were feeling, at least in comparison the the few years prior to the election.

Another similarity between then and now is that in 1980 is that Congress was deeply unpopular, the difference though is that in 2012 Congress is controlled by the Republicans.  While Carter had a rough relationship with Congress, it was more difficult for him to blame the problems of the economy on them, because his party was in control...obviously Obama is much more free to attempt to sell the contrast.

So while Reagan could rely on Carter's unpopularity to carry the day, the fact is Obama's fundamentals are much stronger than that of the Georgia peanut farmer's.  Reagan was also running during an ideological shift of the general electorate.  Despite beliefs that Reagan was the reason for the conservative shift in America, the fact remains that polls in early 1980 showed shifts of the American electorate to the right on issues such as social welfare, spending, and the military.  For the first time in decades, Americans favored an increase in military spending.  There is, I believe, little evidence that shows a growing desire for increased militarism among the general electorate this go around.

But, beyond poll numbers and data, I think the biggest reason why Democrats like myself are cautiously optimistic about a race against the Newt have more to do with his personality than his positions.  Newt is in many ways the gross and inaccurate caricature that has been adopted by the Right against President Obama.  He defines egotistical and arrogant, his belittling of the media and his opponents, while endearing to the right, are less likely to be attractive to the middle of the political spectrum.  And, in addition, he's a scummy human being compared to a President who by all appearance has his personal house in order. 

My biggest fear though with Newt, is that while he's played the media and GOP electorate like a fiddle thus far, he's also smart enough to transition to "nice Newt" in the general election.  After all, this is a guy who sat down with Nancy Pelosi on a couch to discuss the need for climate change legislation.  Much like Romney, the man has few convictions beyond advancing his own personal success, and while he's come up with some idiotic ideas in the past, I think he's smart enough to track polls and adopt a more centrist viewpoint and demeanor should he get the nomination.  The question is whether or not he could or would be able to look past his own brilliance to listen to other people.  I'm guessing not, and I'm also guessing we won't have a chance to find out.