Gordon Ball Shakes Up TNDP Chair Race

It appears as though Gordon Ball has finally found a race he'd like to run in.  After being mentioned as a potential Congressional candidate in 2007 for the 1st district, and after having considered a bid for the Governorship back in 2009, it looks like Ball, a wealthy attorney based out of Knoxville, wants to be the next Chair of the TNDP.

Ball indicates that he has a five point plan to rebuild the TNDP, and in addition he says he won't take a salary and that he wants to open a TNDP office in Knoxville.

Assuming he follows this through (and his letter certainly seems unequivocal) he joins Wade Munday, Matt Kuhn, Justin Walling and current TNDP Chair Chip Forrester in pursuit of this job.

Find out more details at KnoxViews. 

Update:

Based on a quick search of TREF records, it appears that Gordon Ball's lone contribution to a state political campaign in the 2010 cycle was a $2,500 check to Bill Haslam.

Update II:

Ball was (as his contribution would suggest) a Democrat for Haslam.

Hacks and Whores Neuter Woods

Jeff Woods, Nashville's curmudgeonly reporter who has an ingrained antipathy towards anyone and everyone who maintains power, has reportedly been neutered, so I'm told by media insiders wishing to remain anonymous.

Noticeably absent from the Pith blog he helped popularize, Woods' last post was on November 10th, and from a recent party to bid former Nashville Scene editor Liz Garrigan adieu...sources tell me the straw that broke Woods' editorial back was his Hacks and Whores for Haslam piece in which he disparaged a large list of Democratic politicos who had endorsed the Republican nominee for the Governorship.

Betsy Phillips appears to have taken over* Woods' mantle on the blog, calling out Republicans and Democrats for their misogynistic shenanigans, and even pointing out the absurdity that Woods' himself writes about, prompting political mainstay Henry Walker to post:

Press watchers please note: This article was written by Jeff Woods who—-to give us further evidence that he has been bound and gagged by his editors—buried the lede (the remarks from Frank Nicely) seven paragraphs down. Thanks to JR for reaching down to pull it up.

Without Woods, Pith has lost its snark. Without snark, the Scene is just an entertainment guide.

Hopefully the South Comm Establishment will realize there are plenty of respectful note-takers at the Capitol, we need our curmudgeon back.

Update:  Betsy posts to say that she isn't taking over Woods' place.  I should've probably said that she is now the only one on the blog (as far as I can see) who is forcefully calling out politicians for their shenanigans.

Weekend Wrap-up

Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving filled with wine and merriment. A few updates from things missed during the Holiday:

The TNDP Chairman's poll closed for the 3rd time, and Wade Munday was once again the winner, this time 63% of the vote, with Matt Kuhn in second and Chip Forrester in third. There has been a drop-off in participation in the poll as it went on, so I'll let those results stand until we get closer to the day when the Executive Committee votes.

Chip Forrester	3 (9%)
Wade Munday	21 (63%)
Justin Walling	1 (3%)
Matt Kuhn	5 (15%)
Kevin Doherty	2 (6%)
other	1 (3%)

On the note, Munday wrote a letter to the executive committee which was picked up by JR Lind.

In other news, Andrea Conte will be lighting the Festivus tree tonight at the Capitol. 

Department of Buzzkills

The DEA announced that it is unilaterally outlawing a handful of substances used in what amounts to "synthetic marijuana," or herbal incense:

The Drug Enforcement Administration said today that it will ban five chemicals used to produce synthetic marijuana, making the product illegal to sell or possess in the United States...

...Sold as incense in head shops, tobacco stores and even in gas stations, its popularity has soared. In at The sale of synthetic marijuana had already been banned by legislatures in at least 12 states, including Kansas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oregon, Illinois, Michigan and Kentucky. It's also banned in some cities in Texas.

There have been more than 500 cases of adverse reactions to synthetic marijuana across the country in the past year, according to the American Association of Poison Control Centers. The number has risen exponentially, with the organization only citing six reported incidents from the year before.

There don't appear to be any deaths associated with this product in the article, so I'll assume there haven't been any...unlike the perfectly legal product, Alcohol, which was associated with 50,000+ cases of poison control contacts and about 20 deaths from poisoning in 2008.

Of course, had marijuana been legal for adults, there is a strong chance a product like this never would've had the market exposure that it has, because adults could choose the safer, natural alternative to "synthetic marijuana" products.

Urban Green Lab Site Launched

Dan Heller, the man behind the Riverside Village development in Inglewood, has another project up his sleeve, a "community center dedicated to sustainable living." According to the website:

"Experts will lead hands-on workshops for people of all ages on a range of topics, from home weatherization to urban agriculture, which will help citizens reduce their environmental impact, save money, and improve the health of their families. Urban Green Lab will showcase green design, interactive displays, and a working community garden."

The site plan for Urban Green Labs looks quite promising and is close by to the Village Pub and other Riverside Village establishments.

Nashville Prep Approved

The proposed charter school, Nashville Preparatory Charter School, was approved unanimously by the school board today:

Nashville Preparatory Charter School (“Nashville Prep”) was founded on four key beliefs: Demographics need not be the determinant of one’s destiny; a college education is the key to breaking the chains of poverty; quality teachers lead to exceptional academic results; and an achievement-oriented school culture, infused with joy and rigor, fosters a strong learning environment. All students at Nashville Prep will know they are on the path to college beginning on the very first day of school. Nashville Prep’s college preparatory expectation will be infused in the school’s culture, inform all instruction in the classroom, and lay the foundation for all communication between teachers, students, and families.

“We are honored to provide a high quality, public education option to families in Nashville. The long term success of our communities, city, and country rests upon the shoulders of our children,” says Ravi Gupta, Nashville Prep Lead Founder. “Our ‘True North’ – our passion and purpose – is preparing all of our students for college. We believe that all children, regardless of background or socioeconomic status, can achieve at high levels. That is why we will enroll some of our city’s most underserved students and shoot for the stars.”

The Munday Message

Wade Munday has officially announced his bid to run for the Chair of the TNDP in a letter to the executive committee.  That makes four people who are now running, including Justin Walling, Matt Kuhn and Chip Forrester.

What makes us Democrats is no mystery. It is on the mind of the elderly voter who, amidst a clamoring Tea Party, chose to vote Democrat in 2010. It is in the heart of the Democratic student at college who had to make it to the polls to secure the same opportunity for others. We are Tennessee Democrats looking out for the single mother, the working father, and the most dispossessed of our communities. We are Democrats because we give everyone a reason to hold out hope for the future.

The previous election cycle suffered from a lack of a clear-cut message from Democrats. More often than not, voters were distracted by the screaming antics of a right-wing sideshow. When they heard a Democratic message in Tennessee, they heard little more than a faint noise. I will work to improve our messaging and the way we and others talk about Tennessee Democrats.

Read the entire letter below the fold.

Tis The Season To Be Giving

Ahh, the never ending game of politics and by extension political giving.

Brady Banks, candidate for District 31 Metro Council, is one of the early birds this year, hosting a fundraiser at the always popular Sunset Grill.  He leads off with an impressive host committee:

Brady Banks
Candidate for Metro Council 31

Tuesday, November 30, 2010, 5:00-7:00 p.m.
Sunset Grill (click here for map)
2001 Belcourt Avenue

Host Committee to Date
Charles Robert Bone
David Briley
Randy Button
Kimberly & Stephen Butler
Gary Bynum
Katherine & David Esquivel
Joe Hall
Dan Hogan
Adam Mosier
Lisa Wiltshire
Jeff Yarbro

Co-Hosts to Date
Rebecca & Dustin Baucom
Corinne Ciocia & Jason Bergeron
Wilson Boyd
Kenny Byrd
Nathan Conrey
Jaime & Jeff Conyers
Bo Crew
Kristin & Chris Dennis
Wendy & Derrick Free
Meredith Freeman & Jeff Middlebrooks
Erica Garrison
Katie Hill
Will Howorth
Bill Huskey
Rob James
Tracy Dry Kane
Jane Grimes Meneely
Camellia Meehan
Blair & Wade Munday
Freddie O'Connell
Emily Ogden
Jason Powell
Aaron Rochelle
Suann & Sam Sanford
Ben Shuster
John Spragens
Katie Williams
Jamaica & Stephen Zralek

$100 suggested contribution

Dept. of Missed Opportunites Part 86

Ben Smith over at Politico reminds me of another disappointing fact of both the past two years in Congress, and the impending Republican takeover of it. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, an anti-Castro zealot and terrorist supporter, is going to take charge of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Rep. Ros-Lehtinen will do everything in her power to make sure we are able to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the objective failure that is the Cuban Embargo, which serves no other purpose than for the anti-Castro Cubans in Florida to punish the Cuban people for their failure to violently overthrow the Castro regime and install their American cousins as the new leaders of Cuba. 

Austin Educates

Austin Goolsbee breaks down the GM "bailout" and how its benefited Americans. 



What would really be nice is if wealthy liberals got together and started putting out TV ads explaining the benefits of various policy decisions over the years, in much the same way as Goolsbee does here, so that Americans can at least have an informed reason for hating the President and Democrats, rather than the hyperbolic rantings of Glenn Beck and others.

Another Friday, Another Poll

The polls are closed, again, and this time the winner of the TNDP Chairman's poll is Wade Munday with 43% of the vote:

Chip Forrester	5 (10%)
Wade Munday	21 (43%)
Justin Wallings	10 (20%)
Other	12 (25%)

Other scored pretty high markings, and we just so happen to have an "other" who announced he is running.

Matt Kuhn, a County Commissioner from Shelby County and policy adviser to the Mayor, is "exploring" a run to be the top dog at the TNDP.  According to his letter to the board, three major principles that would guide his leadership would be a fundraising re-organization, recruitment of candidates who are under the age of 40 (40 under 40), and the "Tennessee Truth Project" which would have one staff member dedicated to chronicling the absurdity of the Tennessee Republican legislators.

In addition to Kuhn, there have been some rumors that Nashville lawyer Kevin Doherty, who once considered running for Senate in 2008, is also pondering a run a the top spot.  So, with that in mind, we'll have another poll, with the previous candidates as well as the newbies.

If you missed it, be sure to read up on Munday and Walling from last week.

Lets See if We Can Go One for Two

Rep. Cooper, I suppose I should be calling your cell phone but I figure this is just about as effective a mode of contacting you because either way you are going to do as you please, regardless of constituent input...and I like that about you.

But, here I go. Rep. Cooper, can I call you Jim? No, OK then, Rep. Cooper it is..I get why you voted against extending unemployment benefits, its not paid for. That's cool, no problem here, stick to your guns.

But you've recently called for extending all of the 2001 Bush Tax cuts, including for those at the top income brackets. I disagree, but nevertheless, I respect that position.

It seems rather clear though that Democrats are on track to bring up an extension of those tax cuts for the middle class (and folks who'd I certainly consider wealthy to boot). Please, please, please just vote for it. Let the Democrats just do it, and you can feel free to vote with your fellow blue dogs and the Republicans for a tax cut extension for those in the upper-class.

All I'm asking is that you don't give Republicans aide and comfort on this one. Hell, we both know it probably isn't going to get past a Senate filibuster anyways...so where's the harm?

Yours Truly,

Someone Who Voted For You

Senate's Not Doing Stuff, Shock!

The Pew Environment Group has a by the numbers on the Deep Water Horizon oil spill and the big fat goose egg for Senate action on the matter...they've delivered it to our two illustrious Senators in the off chance they feel like doing something about it.

Pew Oil Spill Index

Speaker Harwell?

Well, I have to say I was quite flabbergasted that the GOP caucus decided to go with the less fire-breathing Beth Harwell over her super-moral and ethical conservative counterpart Glen Casada, but they did.

Rep. Harwell will not only be the first female Speaker of the House in Tennessee's history, but also the last Speaker from Davidson County in 40 years, since James McKinney of Madison served for two years in the 1971-72 session, right before McWherter started his lengthy stint in that position. Prior to him Clyde Shropshire served from Davidson County in the 60th General Assembly.

Guessing Dean Wasn't Consulted

Kevin Sharp, head of Nashville's Priorities, a leader in the opposition to a publicly financed convention center, has been chosen by President Obama to replace Judge Robert Echols, who has gone on to work at Bass Berry & Simms [fun fact, Echols was the presiding judge over Kurita's frivolous lawsuit in which Bass Berry represented the Democratic Party].

Sharp, who led the charge against the new downtown convention center as head of the group Nashville's Priorities, is a partner in the law firm Drescher & Sharp, where he focuses on federal litigation. Before co-founding the firm in 2003, he spent a majority of his legal career at the former Stokes Bartholomew Evans & Petree, where he was a partner from 2001 to 2003, and an associate from 1993 to 1996 and 1997 to 2001. He also served as an attorney in the Office of Compliance of the U.S. Congress from 1996 to 1997.

Prior to college, from 1982 to 1986, Sharp served in the U.S. Navy, specializing in in-flight communications aboard the P-3 Orion. He received his J.D. in 1993 from Vanderbilt University School of Law, and his B.S. (summa cum laude) in 1990 from Christian Brothers College.

Sharp can now look forward to having his nomination needlessly held up so that some Republican Senator who has nothing to do with Middle Tennessee can get some sort of concession on an entirely unrelated matter.

No Vanderbilt Alumns Available?

Shockingly, despite my pleas, Jim Cooper went ahead and voted for Heath Shuler, who received 22% of the Caucus vote. From PP:

“It’s time for new leadership after the worst electoral defeat since 1948. Therefore I voted against Speaker Pelosi and for her Blue Dog rival, former UT quarterback Heath Shuler.”

Maybe new leadership was needed, but surely we could've done better than Shuler.

First Republican Speaker in 140 YEARS!!!

Bill Sanderson, the Republican who narrowly defeated Rep. Judy Barker, is really geeked up about his vote for the next Speaker of the House.  He's so excited that some notable Republicans are getting the shaft with this tweet:

No!!!! That's not true Bill. Now, assuming you wanna forget the whole Kent Williams fiasco, who was in fact a Bona Fide elected Republican when he assumed the Speaker's position two years ago, there is another Gooper who held the throne in the House, albeit ever so briefly. From 1969-1970 Republicans held an ever so slim majority in the House, what margin I can't exactly tell*, the listing shows more than 99 members, but all the same, Bill Jenkins, who later went on to become Congressman for the 1st District, was Speaker of the House during that period.

You see, at the time, Democrats experienced a couple of landslide elections out of their favor.  After the 1964 election, Democrats had a 74 seat majority, which whittled down in 1966 to 58 (loss of 16) and then down to enough to elect a GOP speaker by 1968 (I'm sure this was in no way related to national Democratic efforts to push for desegregation, because we all know Republicans never benefited from that...).   By 1970, all was right with the world and Republicans were back down to 44 seats in the House, and they didn't improve much beyond that until more recent times.

*A commenter on PP notes that it was 49-49 with an Independent voting with the Republicans.  Here's a link to the caucuses, which show 49 Dems and 51 Republicans, it appears Districts 1 and 6 had replacements during the session.

Somos Sordos y Ciegos

Apparently some Hispanic Republicans are getting a rude awakening into which party they chose to affiliate with:

On November 12, 2010, SOMOS REPUBLICANS demanded an apology from State Representative, Curry Todd, for his derogatory remarks that liken “illegal immigrants to rats”. We did not receive a contrite apology from him and instead we received more atrocious language when Todd told the Associated Press that he meant to say “anchor babies”. Since when do Republican officials who claim to be pro life use such defamatory language attached to babies?

Since when? Since when have they not? I know George Bush loved him some baby Mexicans, but beyond that the Republican party, and more particularly the Conservative movement, has been engaging in one long slanderous run-on sentence for the past 6 or 8 years. Turn on a talk radio station why don't ya?

Oh, as for babies being demeaned, have my Hispanic Republican friends ever heard of the term "welfare babies"? Did you think that was a liberal term of endearment?

I don't begrudge Hispanics for being Republicans...there are a lot of issues they may agree more with the Republicans than Democrats other than immigration issues. But unless you happen to be a member of a right-wing military junta or a white Cuban exile, you best not go looking to your party for words of comfort and embrace.

Cooper Lectures McCain on Compromise

The once Conservative-turned-Maverick-turned-Conservative Senator from Arizona got a bit of a scolding from Rep. Cooper at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council:

Rep. Jim Cooper (D, Tenn.) — a moderate “Blue Dog” Democrat who avoided the fate of fellow moderates and won re-election — took a shot at McCain, who had complained about the healthcare law.

“What we’re hearing here tonight is the continuation of the campaign, and part of that is due to the fact that the camera is on,” Cooper said.

“Campaigning is so different than governing. Governing, as you all know running your corporations - you have to make deals. Sen. McCain, this isn’t the first time that deals were made in Washington. Compromise is necessary if you’re going to govern a great and diverse nation of over 300 million people.”

You'd think a Senator who once bucked his party leadership to pass campaign finance regulations with Sen. Feingold would remember this. But I'm guessing McCain is still feeling burned by the lack of media and centrist adulation during his 2008 campaign that he felt during his 2000 campaign and he Senate actions that immediately followed.

On another note, Rep. Cooper feels he has a solution to help CEO's sleep better at night and restore "confidence" in the American markets, “I wish the president would ask six or eight great businessmen to be on the cabinet. I think that would do a lot to align interests and reduce uncertainty.” I'm not sure if he's talking about Cabinet (of which only a handful are related to economic policy) or the Council of Economic Advisers here...the latter would make more sense.

Dear Congressman Cooper, Please Don't Vote for Shuler

Heath Shuler has finally announced what was readily apparent for quite some time, that he was going to challenge Nancy Pelosi to be the leader of the Democrats.  Harold Ford Jr. tried a similar stunt back in 2002, and in all likelihood Shuler's bid will be even less successful than Ford's.

Now, on to our Congressman.  I understand that Rep. Cooper isn't thrilled with Pelosi's leadership of the caucus, and maybe she isn't the best choice.  But if you are going to blame policy for the Democrat's loss in 2010, it wasn't social issues that hurt us, it was fiscal issues.  With that in mind, going to a radically rightwing social conservative like Heath Shuler, who lives in "The Family" housing and has a pretty consistent record of opposing rights for women and gays, is not the solution.

I'd hope that Rep. Cooper, if he can't vote for Pelosi, would just as soon abstain from voting on the matter, rather than voting for a candidate who is thoroughly opposed to the rights of people in this district.  You can make a valid argument for why the Democratic caucus should be more fiscally conservative (though you can make an equally valid argument for why they should've spent more - see: Krugman), but I don't see any reason for us to go backwards on the social issues that have helped bring young voters to the Democratic party.

Padgett for Mayor of Knoxville

Padgett announces his bid to be Mayor of Knoxville. No, not the Padgett who ran to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in 2008, but his son, Mark.  per the press release:

Padgett is CEO of eGovernment Solutions, a local company that he launched in 2005 with $5,000 in savings and a borrowed laptop computer. Padgett's client base has more than doubled during the worst economic downturn since the Depression.

The company's cutting-edge software allows government to work for the people, not the other way around, by making key services more accessible to the public, including being available online. Padgett also worked for Governor Phil Bredesen for three years as part of a team that implemented private sector efficiency techniques to cut 5-10% of the waste from a variety of state departments.

"I've made a payroll. I've got hands-on experience running a successful company," Padgett said. "And I know what it means to take a critical look at government services and make them what they ought to be: more responsive to the people."

The good thing about having a politician father is that you can re-use their web address.

What's Old Is New

Last week Brady Banks announced that he was going to run for the Metro Council seat being vacated by Parker Toler.  Back in 2007 I had a series of interviews with various At Large metro council candidates, and Brady Banks was one of them.  Here's the text of the interview along with a link to the original article. Some of the material is rather dated, and hopefully I can do some interviews with he and other potential council candidates for the upcoming 2011 Metro Elections.

Interview With Brady Banks - 2007

To Earmark or Not To Earmark

That's the question facing the Republicans who have taken over Congress.  Under the Democrats, the earmark process has become more open and transparent, and the amount of them have been limited to about half of what their Republican predecessors pushed through.  Now that Republicans are back in charge, its perfectly understandable why they can't trust their members with this authority given how royally screwed up the process became under their leadership prior to the Democratic takeover in 2006.

Now, I'm somewhat sympathetic to arguments by people like McConnell and Inhofe who argue that they are abdicating Congressional authority to the Executive branch, because they are.  But, again, they have shown time and again that they are unable to responsibly hold political power, so if they want to give this power over to grown-ups, I have no problem with this.

However, should Armageddon happen and Sarah Palin, or someone like her, take the Presidency, I'd be entirely uncomfortable with such a corrupt, vindictive and thoroughly untrustworthy person holding the power to reward his or her allies and punish his or her foes.

In short, as long as Barack Obama is President, or even if a responsible Republican were somehow able to make it through the nutjob GOP primary electorate, I don't have a problem with this.  But I do find it odd that Republicans who just gained power are looking to cede their authority to the President, all the while blocking the President from doing his constitutionally mandated jobs such as appointing judges and negotiating treaties.

Tell Us How You Really Feel

David Briley, while prefacing his post with a reminder that he is NOT running for TNDP Party Chair, has gone from being respectfully critical in his letter to the board, to being a bit more forceful in his critique of Chairman Chip Forrester:

I like Chip and take his interest in remaining Party Chair as a continuation of his admirable persistence and willingness to take on challenges no matter the odds. I’ve been there myself.

Respect for Chip’s persistence is not enough for us to ignore the fact that Chip’s leadership over the last two years had resulted in little if any acknowledgment of the changing political landscape. Since 2009, the Party has done nothing to advance any new ideas. The Party lacks any infrastructure to consider, research or promote a new Democratic idea. Like every other recent election, the Party sent out glossy mailers with the same old ideas. Like every other recent election, we tried to out-Republican the Republicans. Here we are at the end of the post 1948 ideological gridlock and all we can do is parrot the same old garbage. That’s how Chip relates to Truman.

While green shoots have appeared on the right and Sarah Palin has grown in stature, Chip tried to convince the public Democrats should win so that Democrats would have a role in redistricting. Really, in the middle of the worst recession in 75 years, that was the best we could muster? Pathetic. When Chip tiptoes up to the real issues confronting our party here’s what he offers. “To effectively address the message challenge of 2010 it will incumbent upon us to ensure that every piece of the Democratic Party quilt has a voice at the table.” Earth to Chip. As Truman said, when the voters can pick between a fake Republican and a real Republican, they will choose the real one every time.

Re-elect Chip and the only voice at the table will be his. That’s Forrester. Enough already.

And The Winner Is...

The week long poll for the Tennessee Democratic Party's next party chair is over and the winner, with 35% of the vote is Jeff Yarbro...who has about as much desire to be party chair as the Republicans have in a constructive way with Democrats, in other words, zero interest.

Chip Forrester	9 (9%)
Bredesen and the Gang	4 (4%)
Dave Garrison	5 (5%)
Sasser/Munday	9 (9%)
Sen. Andy Berke	9 (9%)
Lincoln Davis	9 (9%)
Jeff Yarbro	35 (35%)
Other	19 (19%)

Of course, in the week since this post there have been new names coming forward who actually seem to have a serious inclination towards the job.  So, with that in mind, why not have a new poll?  Here are the options.

Chip Forrester: The current party chair needs no further introduction, but feel free to peruse his application for a renewed contract.

Wade Munday: To most of us bloggers out there Wade came to be known during the 2008 election cycle as the Press Secretary for the TNDP under Chairman Gray Sasser. Wade is 28 years old and Gallatin born and raised. He went to Trevecca before getting a Masters in Divinity from Vanderbilt University. He's worked in various positions and campaigns in Tennessee, from the House Caucus to most recently working with Kim McMillan's fledgling Gubernatorial campaign before leaving that position in order to work as a fundraising consultant for Boston Children's Hospital, the world's leading children's research institution. He came back to Nashville in order to get married to his wife Blair, as well as continue his work in non-profits.

Wade seems to have some early support from a few members of the executive committee, both young and older, who are gauging and asking for support from around the state.

Justin Walling: This is a name that hasn't popped up much yet, but is actually running (or at least seriously exploring the option). Justin is/was Lincoln Davis' field representative in Tennessee, and in addition is Chair of the Van Buren County Democratic Party and head of the Tennessee Democratic County Chairs (which earns him an ex-officio vote on the committee).

Justin is a 28 years old, a graduate of Tennessee Tech University and the Nashville School of Law.

As with last time, the poll is on the right side of the blog (apologies for the spelling error on Walling's name, once ppl vote, I can't change it), so make your choice and we'll tally the results next week.

Is Bredesen Going to Run for President in 2012?

At some point, the question has to be asked:

“In a perfect world, I would love it if a president would say, ‘look I got off on the wrong foot here, we’re doing some things, let’s put something together, we all have the desire to cover more uninsured people and … I’m willing to say mea culpa and maybe we can get all these things right,” he said.

The problem with Governor Bredesen's solution to the problem is that he either forgot or ignored the health care debate that ensued in 2009 and 2010. His solution is still as much or more so of a "government takeover of health care" as the Obama plan, and that is ultimately what Republicans ran against. They didn't launch their slash and burn campaign against health care reform as part of a good faith effort to find compromise, they attacked many things they'd supported in the past simply because they thought they could get electoral advantage.

None of those principles at play have changed. Republicans are just as wedded to, if not more attracted to, a system of governing that consists of opposing everything the President says or does regardless of how hypocritical they are in the process...so far its worked swimmingly at least in the political sense.

I don't disagree with Bredesen on some of his policy solutions, I just think he is taking the Tennessee model, where Republicans were willing to work with him, and transposing it to a national model where partisanship and gamesmanship is much more of an issue. Of course, that helps because Bredesen did very little to try and promote a progressive agenda, rather he simply managed the state well while tinkering around the edges. Obama and the Democrats don't have that luxury.

Republicans Backtracking Like Rats Abandoning a Sinking Ship

Rep. Curry Todd, R-Collierville (debatable as to what the 'R' stands for), decided to lift liberal spirits after the demoralizing defeats of last week by giving us this little nugget of wisdom vis-a-vis children of unauthorized aliens.



For those unable to watch, Todd said “Well, they can go out there like rats and multiply, then, I guess," in response to the CoverKids administrator telling him that they are required to provide coverage to all citizens, even the little brown kind born to unauthorized aliens.

And while now Sen. Stacey Campfield doesn't openly approve of the language Todd used, he certainly thinks there is merit to the argument:

While the choice of terminology was not very good, Curry Todd is starting to take notice of the problem created by illegal aliens having children in America and the cost to our state. It is an issue with a pretty good partial solution out there that I broached on this blog and in the legislature back in 2008.

It all comes down to the vague 14th amendment and what states can do about it. Possibly Tennessee is about ready to step up to the plate and start talking solutions.

Yes, lets amend the constitution, or openly flaunt it, to stem a non-crisis of kids being born in the United States.

A couple points here. First of all, it sort of defies logic that people would have kids simply so that those kids could take advantage of government health care. I mean, I can see someone making the argument of a pregnant woman crossing the border to have her child born a US citizen, but just plopping out kids solely so that those kids will get health care rather defies logic.

Second, I find Stacey and Curry's consternation over children of poor immigrants using government services to be a bit mind boggling.  Here are a group of people who want to force women who can't afford and don't want to have children, to give birth and give the state more mouths to feed.  And yet, they want to strip away citizenship rights for children born in the US because their parents don't have the proper paperwork to have babies in their eyes. 

Going After Target and IHOP Customers

B-e-t-s-y Phillips has a nice little response to the pontificating of our fine soon-to-be-ex-Governor who insists that unlike he, Obama is not in touch with the common folk, and that he needs to get his ass to a Wal-mart or Waffle House pronto:

If you're wondering why Democrats in this state are so demoralized, it's because even the ostensible head of the State Democratic Party talks about "real" people like that's a group that, by definition, excludes Democrats.

But here's the other thing. I'm tired of Bredesen treating us like we're stupid. I don't know what Walmart he goes to, but I used to shop at the old one on Nolensville, way back in the day, and then I shopped at the one on Charlotte and now I shop at the one on Dickerson or the one in Ashland City.

And you and I both know Bredesen isn't advocating that Democrats pay more attention to what Blacks, Latinos, Muslims, and single moms are going through. We all know he's trying to say, "We need to be more concerned about what grumpy-ass white guys think," but rather than just be square with everyone and come out and say that, he's trying to rely on his stereotype of who shops at Walmart or goes to Waffle House to signal "working-class white guys."

Personally, I think Dennis Alpert has some nasty dirt on Bredesen and is blackmailing him to associate Wal-mart with "real people" whenever he can...but I digress.

Chip's All In

Chip Forrester is not backing down despite the massive losses Tennessee Democrats saw in last Tuesday's elections.  Touting various accomplishments he feels he made as party chair, such as more involvement with the Executive Committee and paying off the legal debts (assuming the Kurita fiasco) he inherited, Forrester wants to help craft a way forward for the minority party in Tennessee:

I’m eager to fin­ish what we started. I believe to posi­tion our­selves for the future we must first make a full assess­ment of the 2010 elec­tions. There are lessons to be learned from the results and that data must be fully ana­lyzed. This process will take sev­eral weeks (as we must wait on the Sec­re­tary of State to release elec­tion data), but the review will be more thor­ough than in elec­tions past thanks to our tech­no­log­i­cal advance­ments. I plan to present the elec­tion analy­sis to the com­mit­tee before the next exec­u­tive com­mit­tee meet­ing. We must under­stand where vot­ers are turn­ing away from Democ­rats and where are our oppor­tu­ni­ties mov­ing forward.

While nobody who opposed Chip in the 2009 election seems inclined to support Forrester now, and in fact he's lost some allies on the board, most importantly himself (he is no longer an elected member of the Exec Committee) as well as members like David Upton who lost his bid for re-election to Kevin Gallagher. In addition, there are other challenges, such as the Senate Dem Caucus Chair, as well as uncertainty as to whether or not Mike Turner will be re-elected to serve as the Democratic Caucus Chair in the House.

Having said all that, Chip Forrester pretty much had the election locked up a month after the elections were over in 2008. Instead of fighting it out over endorsements, he got a majority of members on the committee to pledge to him, and he managed to hold them throughout the onslaught by Gov. Bredesen's political right-hand man Will Pinkston, among others.

If opposition to Forrester's re-election hopes to have a shot, the sooner they coalesce around a candidate, and the willingness of that candidate to court each individual member of the committee rather than simply putting out a letter or scooping up endorsements (at this point, it shouldn't be quite so hard because there are but two Democratic congressmen) from non-executive committee member, the better chances they'll have to changing the TNDP guard.

Just a reminder, the poll for the next TNDP chair is still up on the right column of the blog, so if you haven't voted yet, give it a go. 

Memphis Representative Dies Suddenly

State Rep. Ulysees Jones Jr. died unexpectedly this morning of an undisclosed illness (some report it was a collapsed lung).  He served 12 terms and had just been re-elected to serve a 13th in an uncontested election.  As a senior member of the delegation, there was talk of his potential rise in the leadership of the Democratic caucus.

He will be missed.

Hindsight 20/20

I finally got a chance to look over the final TNDP financial report (10/01-10/22) to see where they spent their money.  They spent just about $500,000 specifically on candidates (for/against) and another $50K on transfers to federal and polling (towards the end they started using PPP polls which I'm told were pretty accurate).

Of the races the TNDP spent money on and we won (there were three) Lowe Finney's was the most expensive, clocking in at $117K for a MOV (Margin of Victory) of 2.41%, next was Mike Turner - $10.5K - MOV 4.74%, and finally Charlotte Burks - $7,613 - 0.34% MOV.

After that, there are a whole lot more races the party spent money on, only to find the Democratic candidate come up short.

The closest was Sam Coleman, which the party spent $28,379 on, only to lose to Jim Gotto by 2.76%.

The most expensive loss was that David LaRoche, who lost to incumbent Joe Carr by 24.59% at a cost of $47,834.

The biggest blowout was Danny Twork, though the party only spent about $1,100 to lose to Philip Johnson by 42.59%.

It should be noted that there was another 10 days after this report in which the party likely spent money, but at the end of this reporting cycle they only had about $80K left and its not clear if they got another infusion from up on high. 

Race	Amount Spent	Margin of Victory	Party Won
Governor	$25,000.00	31.94%	R
H02	$13,919.58	23.84%	R
H11	$21,546.10	10.40%	R
H25	$30,765.00	36.18%	R
H36	$5,904.45	18.37%	R
H39	$14,194.52	31.34%	R
H40	$25,497.47	11.06%	R
H42	$1,873.12	10.57%	R
H48	$47,834.30	24.59%	R
H51	$10,135.22	4.74%	D
H60	$28,379.21	2.76%	R
H66	$42,260.98	23.38%	R
H68	$8,043.10	29.43%	R
H75	$14,914.68	13.42%	R
H77	$30,392.04	1.77%	R
H78	$1,171.72	42.59%	R
H79	$8,779.16	35.72%	R
S13	$189.21	40.22%	R
S15	$7,613.97	0.34%	D
S17	$44,934.48	25.25%	R
S27	$117,512.71	2.41%	D

Moving Tennessee Forward

David Briley, who took over Chip Forrester's seat on the TNDEC, has a message to his fellow board members suggesting we first work on building Democratic policies before we can even worry about expanding our base of supporters.

You Won't Have Buckets to Kick Around Anymore

Addison Pate, the House Democratic Caucus Press Secretary who last year received the nickname "buckets" for an unfortunate photo in the Tennessean, has decided to hand in his resignation from the Caucus after the losses this past Tuesday. Mike Turner had this to say:

“Addison Pate has been an invaluable resource to this caucus for over three years, often putting the priorities of Democrats and the people of Tennessee ahead of his own,” said Turner. “His passion has always been to help people and I know he will continue this passion beyond the House floor and into the classroom."

Often being portrayed by trolls in comments section of Post Politics as having more power or control than he actually did, Pate has served as Press Secretary under Caucus Chairman Mike Turner since October of 2007.  Prior to that he was Communications Director for the TSEA.  As Press Secretary, Addison helped Chairman Turner reach out to progressive/liberal bloggers in an attempt to reach out and make the process more open for non-traditional media.

While its still unclear if Mike Turner, who narrowly won re-election, will still serve as Caucus Chairman next year, this could serve as a sign that he is willing to clean house and build a new caucus organization that is able to push back the red tide that swept the state the past two cycles. Addison had this parting message:

“It has been my greatest honor to serve the people of Tennessee through service to their state legislators and play a small part in helping pass quality legislation in this great state,” said Pate. “My goal now is to take what I’ve experienced and share it with the next generation of Tennesseans.”

On a personal note, Addison is a good personal friend of mine and I want to wish him the best as he transitions from the political world to public service as a teacher.

Musical Chairs

Well, I suppose now is as good a time as any to get the conjecturing under way over the future of the organization officially known as the Tennessee Democratic Party.  Obviously we took a beating this past Tuesday, both in terms of our Congressional representation and legislative representation.

In 2008 I pretty much balked at the objection by some in power that it was all the fault of Obama that we lost 5 seats (5, right?). After all, many other Southern states held, and even in places like Kentucky where Obama did poorly we still saw a pickup for Democratic seats in the legislature. This time around, that explanation is not only perfectly logical but supported by empirical evidence. The GOP saw a national average of 12.5% of legislative seats swing in their direction, that is actually slightly higher than the 11.5% of Tennessee seats that went towards the GOP, and below the blowouts in Alabama, Arkansas, and North Carolina.

Having said that, the simple truth is that there was a lot of controversy over Chip Forrester's election in 2009, and the same forces that tried to tear the party apart then are still around, if perhaps even amplified by the poor results of last Tuesday. If we are to begin the long and arduous task of slowly rebuilding the Democratic brand in Tennessee, I just don't see how chip Forrester is going to be the person to do it.

So, with all that noted, I'm going to throw out some names of who people think might be a good party chair, and put up a poll (on the right column of the blog) to gauge the mood of the readership.  The poll will stay up until next Friday at 5PM, and we have until 4:00PM today for me to add any new names to the list being polled.

Roy Herron Reflects On Loss

It being Roy Herron, you know it ain't short...here's a taste with more after the jump:

Upon one of Abraham Lincoln’s several election defeats, on a night like this, Lincoln quipped, “I feel like the little boy who stubbed his toe in the dark. I am too old to cry, but it hurts too much to laugh.”

So it is for many of us tonight.

But Scripture teaches us in Ecclesiastes:

To everything there is a season,
and a time to every purpose under heaven.
...
A time to weep, and a time to laugh,
a time to mourn, and a time to dance…

This was not our time to win this election, but there will be other elections, and there will be other times.

Unemployment and the Republican Wave

Betsy is over at Pith making an argument for why the Democrats lost so big in Tennessee Tuesday, and it revolves around the unemployment rate:

Democrats, I love you (well, most of you), but please! You want to figure out what happened? Sit down with this (warning: link goes to a PDF full of terrible news) and ask yourself if you're really facing such a mystery.

How did Ty Cobb lose to a woman who seems to think interracial dating is a problem? The unemployment rate in Maury County last month was 14 percent.

What went wrong with Doug Jackson? His district is still sitting at 10 percent.

That's all well and good of an explanation, but only if you consider Tennessee as a lone entity. If you take Tuesday's results and put it in a national context, its rather clear why Democrats lost big here...because they are Democrats.

I've built a chart that lists states by their unemployment ranking, lowest to highest, along with Congressional and Legislative gains by the GOP. One of the highest performers for the GOP statistically was New Hampshire, owing partially to a rather screwed up 435 member lower house, but we also saw two Democratic Congressional seats flip to the GOP and they made hefty gains in their State Senate. Conversely, Nevada and California, two states with some of the lowest unemployment numbers, saw modest or negligible gains by the GOP, on all levels.

Tennessee is not alone in our losses, in fact, we are right at the national average of 15 losses in the legislature.  Granted, those numbers are skewed because of New Hampshire, but even if you control for that we are still just slightly above the national average, and below the number of seats lost in North Carolina, which actually did a much better job of keeping targeted Congressional seats.

The simple truth is that we didn't win because Republicans and GOP leaning voters have had their fires stoked for the past two years by a conservative media to the point where they wanted to punish Democrats, regardless their ties to the national party, for being Democrats.  As for Democrats and Democratic leaning voters, they (like that black woman at the CNBC town hall) have grown somewhat weary of defending the President and the Party against an onslaught of negative charges that have an air of truthiness to them.

Roughly 45+ million people came out yesterday to elect Republicans, that's well below the number of people who voted for either Obama (70 million) or McCain (59 million).  I do think their views are reflected to some extent by the general public, but certainly not by the margins indicated in Tuesday's results.  In states like Delaware, the Democrats actually made gains in large part because Dems had their own reason to be angry/scared about the possibility of Republican victory, and so the key for Dems is going to be to target and demonize the GOP (it'll be easier now that they have a face and power leading it) and drum up support among Dems going into 2012.

Having said all that, don't get it twisted, the GOP will control the State Legislature for generations to come in Tennessee...learn to live with it. 

Rank	State	UE Rate	House	Senate	Legislative
1	NORTH DAKOTA	3.7	1	GOP*	20
2	SOUTH DAKOTA	4.4	1	GOP	12
3	NEBRASKA	4.6	0
4	NEW HAMPSHIRE	5.5	2	GOP	121
5	VERMONT	5.8	0	DEM	-1
6	HAWAII	6.3	-1	DEM	1
7	KANSAS	6.6	1	GOP	16
8	IOWA	6.8	0	GOP	22
8	VIRGINIA	6.8	3			Top 10 Avg
8	WYOMING	6.8	0		12	20.3
11	OKLAHOMA	6.9	0	GOP	14
12	MINNESOTA	7	1		41
13	MONTANA	7.4	0		19
14	MARYLAND	7.5	1	DEM	5
14	UTAH	7.5	0	GOP	6
16	ARKANSAS	7.7	2	GOP*	22
16	MAINE	7.7	0		28
18	ALASKA	7.8	0	GOP	2
18	LOUISIANA	7.8	0	GOP		Top 20 Avg
18	WISCONSIN	7.8	2	GOP*	18	17.9
21	TEXAS	8.1	2		24
22	COLORADO	8.2	2	DEM	6
22	NEW MEXICO	8.2	1		8
24	NEW YORK	8.3	6	DEM	9
25	DELAWARE	8.4	-1	DEM	-1
25	MASSACHUSETTS	8.4	0		16
27	ALABAMA	8.9	1	GOP	23
28	IDAHO	9	1	GOP	5
28	PENNSYLVANIA	9	5	GOP*	13
28	WASHINGTON	9	1	DEM
31	CONNECTICUT	9.1	0	DEM	16	Bottom 20 Avg
32	WEST VIRGINIA	9.2	1	DEM	4	9.8
33	MISSOURI	9.3	1	GOP	21
34	NEW JERSEY	9.4	1
34	TENNESSEE	9.4	3		15
36	NORTH CAROLINA	9.6	1	GOP	26
37	ARIZONA	9.7	2	GOP	8
38	DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA	9.8
38	MISSISSIPPI	9.8	2
40	ILLINOIS	9.9	4	GOP*	8
41	GEORGIA	10	1	GOP	10	Bottom 10 Avg
41	OHIO	10	5	GOP	15	10.4
43	INDIANA	10.1	2	GOP*	15
43	KENTUCKY	10.1	0	GOP	9
45	OREGON	10.6	0	DEM	16
46	SOUTH CAROLINA	11	1	GOP	3
47	RHODE ISLAND	11.5	0		8
48	FLORIDA	11.9	4	GOP	7
49	CALIFORNIA	12.4	0	DEM	1
50	MICHIGAN	13	2		26
51	NEVADA	14.4	1	DEM	4
		Total=	62	Total=	673
				* = Pickup
	Avg UE Rate for GOP SEN Pickup 8.03%

Bredesen and Co Start a New Company

Governor Bredesen has been quite keen on building up Tennessee's industries during the course of his eight year tenure, and no industry got more attention than that of the burgeoning solar power market.  Well, he's taken his economic team with him to found a private venture called Silicon Ranch, along with key members of his economic team Matt Kisber and Reagan Farr, as well as Democratic political consultant Mike Kopp.

Now, this is all well and good and I commend them on keeping the economic team together and making a little cash, but I'm just ever so slightly perturbed about this little nugget:

But the company was set up as a Delaware corporation in August before Farr stepped down from his position as one of the state's top two economic development officials. Farr reserved the company's name with the Tennessee secretary of state in July.

I know its a common practice to incorporate in Delaware...but come on now, its the friggin former Governor and Revenue Commissioner of Tennessee. If our laws regarding corporations were so bad, perhaps they should've done something to change them?

And The Award for Cheapest Senate Seat Goes To...

Jim Summerville of Dickson, TN who beat out incumbent Doug Jackson. Summerville spent a grand total of $1908 on his campaign, compared to a little over $15K spent by Doug Jackson...who was sitting on about $28K at the end of the last reporting period.

Update: 

Trying to find some info on our newest Tennessee State Senator, but the pickings are slim.  Based on some Facebook info (he doesn't appear to have a website) he's 63 years old, loves his dogs, considers himself center-right, and wrote a book on the history of Meharry Medical School and on the Carmack-Cooper shooting of 1908.  Oh, he also managed to get an F from the NRA...how does a Republican do that?

There is this question-answer session available at the Tennessean.

Just Imagine If People Liked The GOP

Yesterday, nationally, voters sent a message to Washington. That message was, "we don't like the GOP...we like the GOP even less than we do the Democratic Party, so we are putting them in charge, do you hear us now?"

Seriously, according to exit polls, voters rated the Democratic party 52-43 Unfavorable to favorable, but they rated the GOP 53-42 unfavorable to favorable. Even assuming those numbers are just a tad off, there was still a good number of people who dislike the GOP but put them in power. Oh well, I look forward to seeing how the GOP heads their call to lower taxes and the deficit...should be interesting.

So, where was I. OK, the Democratic brand in Tennessee if fuuuuuucccckkkkked. Lets start with the Senate.

We held the seat that was seen as the most vulnerable to GOP pickup, Lowe Finney. We didn't win any GOP seats, but oh yeah, hows that guns in bars thing working out for Doug Jackson? Not so well, he's a gonner, losing 51-49 against Jim Summerville. Charlotte Burks had a pretty tumultuous night, but it appears she was able to hold on narrowly. Meanwhile, Democratic dreams of knocking off Mae Beavers were just that, dreams. So, 20-13 in the Senate.

On to the House. Caucus Leader Mike Turner narrowly held on to his seat 52-48, as did former Speaker Jimmy Naifeh who won 51-49. That is about the closest thing to a silver lining you can find from last night. Lets just go down the list, shall we?

TN-02, whatever pipe dreams Democrats had about Nathan Vaughn winning back his seat after the '08 loss should be put to rest after he lost to incumbent Tony Shipley, 62-38.

TN-10, Jon Litz will probably be the last Democrat to represent this seat, Miller beat Mullins 67-33.

[Updated: Didn't mean to leave you out Eddie] TN-11, Yokley couldn't stay yolked to his seat, losing 55-45 to Jeremy Faison.

TN-32, Dennis Ferguson was seeking his 10th term in the House...he was denied, losing 53-47 to Julia Hurley.

TN-33, Hackworth could no longer hack it, 54-46 to John Ragan.

TN-38, 13 was Les Winningham's unlucky term number, he lost 56-44 to Kelly Keisling.

TN-39, Fraley was pretty frail, he went down 66-34 to David Alexander.

TN-42, despite his best efforts to hid his Harvard education behind a good ol' boy persona, Hank Fincher couldn't hang on. 55-45 to Ryan Williams.

TN-46, Stratton got Boned, 53-47 to Mark Pody.

TN-49, there is only room for one Kent in the House. Kent Coleman goes down to Mike Sparks 58-42.

TN-60, Sam Coleman actually did really well in this conservative leaning district, but it wasn't enough. Gotto won 51-49.

TN-64, I guess voters didn't agree that a guest worker program was so crazy, Sheila Butt won 55-44 so she can spread her anti-gay, anti-miscegenation propaganda.

TN-75, Butch Borchert appeared to be running even most of the night...no more, he lost 57-43.

TN-76, Mark Maddox was just elected Vice-President of the National Conference of State Legislators...that might be the last thing he was elected to. He lost, 56-44 to Andrew Holt.

TN-77, Judy's bark was worse than her opponents bite, as she lost to Bill Sanderson 51-49.

Apologies for all the bad puns, and of course some of these close races are conditional on finalized vote tallies, but the overall takeaway is that Democrats can't do a whole lot worse after redistricting than we did last night.  We are now at 35 34 House seats [PP has it 34 seats...I'm not sure which one I'm missing updated to include Yokley], and while I'll have to crunch some numbers, this may put us down as the most Republican state in the Southeast region*.  Republicans are obviously rather pleased with themselves, and it will be interesting to see who the GOP speaker is given that they, and the Caucus leadership, will probably have an unusually large amount of influence over what is likely the largest amount of Freshmen Legislators in modern history.

As for our congressional representation, or lack thereof, I don't think anyone expected the kind of blowout we saw in Lincoln Davis' district, though really it shouldn't be all that surprising if you take the names out of the picture.  That seat was a swing district, housing Jim Cooper, then Van Hilleary, then Lincoln Davis, and now Scott DesJarlais.  But 57-39 has got to sting.  On NPR this morning they interviewed a farmer who said Lincoln hadn't done anything for her and that they were hoping Dr. D would be a change....I really hope they do a follow up interview with her in two years to see how that's working out.

*I'm trying to find out for sure, but Florida may be just ever so slightly more Republican in terms of state representation, but we are neck-and-neck.

Buckle Up, Its Gonna Be Bumpy

I figured I might as well throw out one last post before the Republican resurgence sweeps the nation tomorrow...I'll be out in Jackson volunteering so its unlikely that I'll have a chance to blog before Wednesday.

Anywho, I gave my predictions for the primary, and so I might as well continue tradition.

Governor:

No shock here. Haslam wins, by a lot. My assumption for a while has been that McWherter gets around 32%, and while I'm starting to think it might be a bit higher, I'll go ahead and leave it there so that Son of Ned can exceed my expectations. I think Haslam will get around 59%, and the rest will go towards one of the plethora of independent or small party candidates.

US House:

Heh, remember early last year when Democrats were talking about how important it was to take back the House because Republicans could redistrict and we might go down to only two or three Democrats? Well, not wanting to give Republicans the satisfaction, we decided we'd preempt the redistricting takeover and let them have it this year.

At best, we will go from a 5-4 majority delegation to a 6-3 minority delegation...and that is only if Lincoln Davis holds on by the skin of his teeth after running a rather nasty series of personal attacks against his political neophyte challenger, Scott DesJarlais. I don't know how this will go for sure, but I'm leaning slightly towards a GOP pickup here.

As for the 6th, that was lost the moment Bart Gordon said adios. And as for the 8th, one line of reasoning I've heard for his inability to seal the deal is his poor constituent services over the years. I kind of doubt that, and I'm leaning more towards GOP wave and lack of name recognition outside of his district and perhaps for a good bit inside of it.

State Senate:

Democrats seem rather convinced that George McDonald is going to win against Mae Beavers who pissed a lot of people off by jumping out of the mayoral race and back into the Senate race purely, and I do mean purely, out of spite for Susan Lynn. If this were 2006 or 2008, I might buy that, but I just have a really hard time believing it in a year when Democrats are demoralized and Republicans are energized...especially in places like Wilson County.

I think we'll see a stalemate in the Senate races, but the Beavers and Finney races will be really close...perhaps even the Walker-Campfield race too, simply because Stacey decided to burn all the money he raised by paying himself back instead of running television (other than a small cable buy), but still its a heavily favored GOP district.

State House:

For quite a while there the Dems seemed rather enthusiastic about their chances of picking up one or two seats this cycle...but from what I gather it seems like that enthusiasm for pickups has turned into a concern over incumbents. Democrats like Rep. Mike Turner and Jimmy Naifeh, who were assumed to be safe, are now having to work hard to overcome a GOP flush with corporate money and looking for places to spend it in order to keep Democrats on their toes.  At the end of the day, we will probably lose more ground to the GOP, perhaps 3-4 seats or more depending on how bad the wave for the GOP is.

In Davidson County, the most heavily contested race is obviously in the 60th district, where Sam Coleman is looking to hold the seat being vacated by Rep. Ben West Jr.  Republicans have been pumping out negative mailer after negative mailer trying to tie the President of the United States to a rather obscure Nashville Council-member, in addition to attacks about a fact-finding trip he took with some of his fellow colleagues a while back. 

At the end of the day, polls had once shown Coleman with a rather decent lead, but it appears Gotto was saving his money for the final stretch, and as such has spent over $82K in the month of October, compared to only $15K by Coleman.  While Coleman had a slightly higher bank after the last reporting period, he has likely been dwarfed by Gotto in TV ads (I assume that's where $50K in AD revenue went towards).  Having not seen them, I don't know if they were negative or positive ads, but either way, TV is crucial to winning elections and Gotto had more resources allocated to it.

I expect a close race here that may be decided by GOTV efforts.

Federal:

Almost forgot about this category. GOP +59 in the House, GOP +8 in the Senate. Nelson flips parties or retires before the 2012 election, not sure which.