It feels kind of odd that despite my rather prolific posting habits over the past month or so that in the final few days before the primary election I've found little to talk about. My enthusiasm hasn't waned, but just doesn't seem to be all that much to talk about unless you are one of the many GOP primary candidates who all seem to be running rather negative campaigns. So I feel compelled to have one last post before the big hurrah, and what better way to post than to make some electoral predictions that will undoubtedly be proven wrong tomorrow. So, here it goes...
In the Governor's race, I predict Mike McWherter will win the Democratic primary with about 98% of the vote and 2% illegitimate write-ins. In the Republican primary, despite all the hemming and hawing by Wamp and Ramsey, in all likelihood the 2006 formula will play out here. Relatively moderate conservative Bill Haslam will win the primary with about 45%, with the other two battling it out for the second spot. Despite all the talk of Basil Marceaux on the internets, my guess is that he doesn't break 5%.
Speaking of Republicans, in the 5th Congressional district there are a plethora of them, some more serious than others. If you assume the electorate is semi-informed and traditional equations play out, Jeff Hartline should win as he has the most money and probably the more professional campaign organization...but I have a rather sneaking suspicion that many of those voting in the GOP primary this year haven't heard much, or rather just don't give a damn, about this contest. So, who does that benefit? Maybe David Hall considering he and his family member have the same yard sign and he's spent a butt load of money on robocalls and other forms of media. And, much like unknown Senate candidate Gary Davis benefited from name surname familiarity, perhaps the name "Hall" is bland enough and in-common enough with popular Sheriff Daron Hall to get him the nod. We'll see...but if David Hall that certainly bodes well for Jim Cooper in the fall.
In other races, just throwing names at the dartboard...
Robin Smith - TN03 (R)
Jack Bailey - TN04 (R)
Diane Black - TN06 (R)
Ben Lemming - TN06 (D)
Stephen Fincher - TN08 (R)
Steve Cohen, by a really large margin - TN09(D)
As for the local races, Tommy Bradley would seem to be the favorite for the 60th House District Democratic primary due to money, but I wouldn't count out Sam Coleman given his current position on the Metro Council and that a majority of the primary electorate in this district will probably be African-American.
I've always assumed David Smith had a good edge against Eric Crafton, and I still think that is the case. I think the Republican primary advantage will shrink a bit on election day as voters in the 19th Senate District are more likely to vote on election day, and they are heavily Democratic. I also think David Smith has worked hard to campaign for the votes of Conservatives, and there are many Chamber-style Republicans who didn't like Crafton's xenophobic crusade. I once said I thought David Smith would get 65%, but I'm revising that down closer to 55%.
As for the two races I really care about, the 21st Senate and the 58th House. I do believe that both challengers will beat the incumbents in those races.
In the 58th its hard to find many people who like the job that Mary Pruitt is doing. Some support her out of loyalty, some support her out of sheer name recognition, but nobody seems to think she is an effective legislator. The key here for Steve Turner will have been in making sure voters knew that A) there was a race going on...which has probably been hard in light of the relatively lax media attention, and B) making sure voters knew the dearth of accomplishments Mary Pruitt has to her name. I've been encouraged by the calls made and doors I've knocked for Turner that people are ready for a change.
Now, in the 21st Senate District its a little bit different. Say what you will about Sen. Henry (and most of you know I have said a lot), he deserves respect for the amount of work he's put in on this campaign. Not content to rest on his laurels he's gotten out and beaten the pavement, gone to many events, and campaigned like a man half his age. For that, he is certainly to be commended. However, I'm not sure all of those efforts help his cause. For many people who see him on TV or in person they see a man past his prime and of a generation past. His views on women's rights are down right infuriating to many of his female constituents, and despite support from the Governor, many of Nashville's business and political elites have gotten behind his young challenger Jeff Yarbro.
Yarbro has run a tough but positive campaign that has done a good job of contrasting the two candidates. Is it enough to get past the entrenched Henry support? I believe so...especially given that many Conservative allies of Henry will be voting in the Republican primary this year.
So, all things told, I expect a good night tomorrow. I don't think either Turner or Yarbro will absolutely blow it out, but I do think they've both done the best job they could and now its time to see whether voters were moved enough to get out to the polls.