Quote of the Day

Comes from our good friend David Oatney from Nutsville, TN:

If Lamar Alexander believes as I do, and as all truely patriotic Tennesseans believe, that Barack Obama’s plan for America is the most wicked scheme ever devised in the 232 year history of this country, Obama must not only be given opposition, but every political chance must be taken when such situations arise to bring his administration to the total and complete political destruction that it so richly deserves.

What kills me about the modern conservative nutters is not that they hate Obama and what he stands for, that is all well and good...its the historically myopic rants that completely ignore both Lyndon Johnson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Seriously, what has Obama done so far in his term? He's spent most of his time throwing life preservers to the "free market" so it wouldn't implode on itself, and now he's promoting a health care program supported by a large swath of medical industry groups.

You want to talk about upending the social order? Hows about the Civil Rights Act or Medicare/Medicaid. Roosevelt damn near redesigned American society, and if it weren't for a conservative supreme court standing in his way, it would've been probably much further to the left than it eventually was.

Hate Obama all you want for being a Kenyan Islamanoid Fascist Socialist, but keeps it in prospective.

I've Now Seen It All...

...Arizona is gonna take a mortgage out on their capitol buildings.

Health Care Reform Supporters Altruistic?

That seems to be the conclusion that Andrew Sullivan derives from a recent Gallup poll:

Chris Good looks at the Gallup poll. Large numbers believe healthcare reform will hurt them personally, but support it for the good of the nation. Obama has tried to argue that it will help most people personally. It's the worst sales job he's ever done - because, I suspect, we all know it isn't true.

Err, umm, how do you get that? From what I can tell, 34% think health care will worsen in the US, and 34% believe it will worsen for them...that seems to me like an unusual level of consistency for a poll.

The way I see it, 55% think they will personally benefit, or at least not be adversely effected...not great, but it would seem to make sense given the fact that I'm sure quite a few people haven't personally had a problem with insurance or health care.

Personally, given the fact that we'll still maintain an employer-based health insurance system, I'm not sure my level of care or coverage will change all that much. If the public option is created and isn't watered down too much by insurance-industry backed Congress-critters, my company might be able to move to a cheaper, more stable plan that doesn't increase premiums twice as fast as inflation, causing wage deflation.

Regardless, the idea that Obama or any President can easily sell a major health care reform package "well" is quite ridiculous. People are naturally weary of tinkering with the health care system, largely because their lives depend on it. There is a large, well funded contingency out there whose political and economic livelihood requires a scared, confused, and disgruntled public to stifle a successful health care reform effort.

Its the same reason health care costs have such a high inflation rate...because people don't know enough or aren't confident enough to challenge advice given to them by medical professionals. If a doctor says you need a certain test, expensive as it may be, most people don't have a level of confidence to challenge them over it like they might with a car mechanic or something like that...because if they are wrong, they could die (or at least be unhealthier). So, you throw a bunch of anecdotes from doctors or supposed medical experts out there saying that this plan will hurt them, and people get a little queasy about changing the status quo, even if they aren't big fans of the status quo.

But that doesn't mean it can't be done. I'm sure there was quite a bit of opposition to the Medicare/Medicaid package advanced by LBJ, along with the requisite fear tactics that went along with them (see: Ronald Reagan). But, we got it passed, and while there are kinks in the system, the elderly generally approve of their level of insurance and care, and there are countless poverty stricken people who owe their lives to the advent of Medicaid.

This proposal is nowhere near as drastic or "socialistic" as Medicare...which is the dreaded Single-payer health care for those over the age of 65. And while Obama's short term favorability ratings might suffer in the short term, a lack of action on this issue will lead to a GOP takeover for sure. In 1993, Dems tried and failed to reform health care, and so they got all the negatives of trying but no positives for succeeding...if we are going to take away a lesson from that fight, take the lesson that we've already started, and so if we fail, we hand the narratives over to the GOP, and our party and country will suffer for years to come.

Shocker! Cooper a "No" on Health Care Bill

In the Tennessean this morning, Rep. Jim Cooper (who is blamed by many for scuttling Health Care reform in the 90s) announced that he would not vote in favor of the House health care bill that looks to come to the floor:

The president said on television that he will not sign legislation that adds to the deficit, worsens long-term budget projections, or fails to "work." The House bill, as currently drafted, fails to meet the first two criteria according to the Congressional Budget Office. In my judgment, it also fails the third.

The president is put in a terrible spot by his own Congress. He doesn't want to make too many committee chairmen mad, so he may well feel forced to support the House bill just to "move the process along," knowing that the ultimate bill will be decided in the Senate.

Assuming Pelosi, et al, still bring it to the floor for the vote, it will be interesting to see if the Blue Dogs offer a substitute amendment with their version of the bill they would want to see...or if they'll simply vote no and let it go down in flames.

See Rep. Cooper on Face The Nation talking about the bill (half-way in):


Watch CBS Videos Online

The Birthers and McCain

Watching the Lou Dobbs debate between Roland Martin and Ted Poe on the issue of Barack Obama's birth certificate (not to be confused with a "Certificate of Live Birth"):



Dobbs brings up a good case. John McCain was born to a Naval Officer in the Panama Canal, and as such, there was some question (going back to his 2000 campaign against George W. Bush) regarding whether or not that met the provisions of "Natural Born Citizen". What was the result of this minor technical controversy? Democrat Claire McCaskill, along with then Sens. Clinton and Obama, sponsored a resolution declaring McCain a citizen and finding that someone born under circumstances such as his is indeed "natural-born".

Conversely, in this debate, there isn't a constitutional question about President Obama's citizenship UNLESS you subscribe to the notion of a massive cover-up conspiracy involving Obama's family, the Hawaii Department of Health, the FBI, the Governor of Hawaii, the State Department, and a couple of Hawaiian newspapers...a conspiracy stemming from the moment of his birth in 1961, when he was simply a bi-racial child born to parents of little means with little realistic expectation that he would apply for and win the one job in the United States where the constitution mandates you be "natural-born" to qualify.

Unlike with the case of McCain, there isn't a Republican effort to push back against these conspiratorial claims, rather a Congressional Republican effort to promote them to their base and the media.

So thanks, Lou, for pointing out once again whose is the party of mature grownups, and whose is the party of hate-filled opportunists.

No Mo' Crack Tax

At least, for a little while...

The Tennessee Supreme Court has ruled that the "crack tax" is not constitutional, but qualifies that it has nothing to do with the US Constitution and basic freedoms, rather, the limitations of taxation authority vested to the state within its own constitution:

Initially, we hold that the statute imposing the tax on unauthorized substances does not violate the constitutional protections against self-incrimination and double jeopardy or abridge the guarantee of procedural due process. Because, however, the tax cannot be classified as either a tax on merchants, a tax on peddlers or a tax on privileges, as authorized by our state constitution, the judgment of the Court of Appeals is affirmed.

State of the Parties

While much attention was paid to the recent filings of the Tennessee Gubernatorial candidates, the funds of the GOP and Dem parties were largely left unnoticed.

Looking at a combination of Federal and State filings, it appears that the Democratic party in Tennessee is in a stronger position than the GOP.

According to Federal reports, the TNDP has $31,738 COH compared to the GOP's $24,472...an improvement to be sure from their previous deficit of -$3,144. While the TNDP has gotten nearly all of the federal funds from new donations over the past 6 months, a large chunk of TNGOP money has come from their state account, which up until now has been kept under wraps.

Based on the mid-year state filings, it appears that the TNGOP has some catching up to do. While they raised more money than the TNDP's state account (a huge chunk of which came from a $50K donation from the Republican Governors), they've also spent nearly all of it. The GOP ended June with $8,763 COH and #68K in obligations, mostly stemming from the 2008 races. The TNDP ended with $39K and zero reported obligations (though, from some reports, they still have outstanding legal bills from Rosalin Kurita's frivolous lawsuits against the party).

So, combined, the TNGOP has $33,235 cash with twice as much in debt leaving a potentially negative balance of ($35,312).

The TNDP has no reported debt, and a COH balance of $70,735.

Defending the Indefensible

Its actually good to see a politician not denigrate his profession (via Dru via ACK):

"A Republican is quoted as having said a 'politics' is a compound word from the word 'poli' meaning many and the word 'ticks' meaning blood-suckers. You might expect that a Republican on occasion might define 'politics' as meaning blood-suckers.

"But I remember what Anna Belle Clement O'Brien taught me and also, I suspects would some of you. Sen. O'Brien started many a speech with these words: 'Politics is a beautiful word to me. Politics is how children get fed; we have schools for our children, our roads get built and people have a better way of life.'

It is often amazing how so many Republicans hate government and politics but are so eager to join them both.

Non-discrimination Ordinance Narrowly Passes

By 24 votes, the non-discrimination ordinance which would make sexual orientation a protected class for the purposes of hiring and promotions within metro govermnet, passed first reading in the council last night. While enough votes to make it law, it should be noted that first readings typically pass unanimously, and some of those voting yes may have done so for the sake of procedure.

Nine voted against and five abstained...of those five, one is Vivian Whilhoite, who is also running to be Juvenile Court Clerk. It will be interesting to see how she ultimately votes, because a No or Abstain could indicate how she'd run her office if elected. It could be reasonably inferred that if she's not willing to protect the rights of GLBT people on the council level, she could continue that trend when it comes to those who'd work for her in that office.

Thanks For The Clarification

Shepard Smtih (via the Nashville Scene) wants all of us to know that it is not, in fact, illegal to be shot to death.



Say what you will about McNair's actions leading up to his death, whether he had a .16 BAC has little to do with getting shot to death in his sleep (though his frequent drinking might've lead to some poor decisions leading up to the event). Drunk or not, its hard to take action against a bullet when you don't even know its coming.

TNDP Makes It Official

That could've been somewhat embarrassing had I been wrong...the TNDP confirmed that Slick Willy (I assure you, a term of affection from myself) will be speaking at Jackson Day at the end of August, and Gov. McWherter was responsible for it:

Forrester thanked former Gov. Ned Ray McWherter for his help in bringing his long-time friend President Bill Clinton to Tennessee and Bredesen and Ford for agreeing to host the dinner.

“Gov. McWherter understands the importance of this next election cycle and what President Clinton means to Tennessee Democrats. I appreciate his help and Gov. Bredesen and Congressman Ford’s help, as well,” Forrester added.

We're Adequate Bitches!

Good news, the Metro Nashville Public Schools didn't totally suck!

The Tennessee Department of Education has announced that Metro Nashville Public Schools has fulfilled the requirements of Adequate Yearly Progress. The district has met academic requirements that were failed last year, and averted a set of serious consequences that would have resulted if MNPS had failed. If AYP had not been met, the DOE would have had the authority to remove individual school board members as well as Director of Schools Jesse Register.

The positive results are for MNPS, as an entire district. For the complete information released to media by the DOE, including school-by-school data, click here.

From what I know having not really followed school issues at all, this would almost totally negate a potential takeover by the Mayor of Nashville schools, and will be a boost for the new Director of Schools, Jesse Register, whether he deserves the accolades or not.

See Also: Kay Simmons appointed to School Board by Metro Council.

Abortion, Abortion, Abortion...

We narrow our selection of Supreme Court Justices over the issue, many people vote for political candidates solely on the issue, now it appears that a stumbling block to fixing our broken health insurance system in this country could be this vary same issue.

The debate will come down to whether or not a health care plan offered by the Government and paid for by those who purchase it, will cover a legal and sometimes necessary procedure for women.

I'm having trouble finding information on it, but according to a pro-life website, 46% of private health insurers cover abortion procedures in their health care plan, though to what extent, I'm not sure.

My thinking is this. First off, any health insurance plan offered by the Government should attempt to be funded by insurees to the same extent other private health insurance companies are (though overhead might be dramatically lower if its a not-for-profit public corporation). As such, the administrators should offer the most competitive plans at the best price they are able...and a competitive plan would likely include abortion coverage to some extent. Now, perhaps it would require that the patient/doctor show some sort of medical need for said abortion, I don't know what is generally covered. But at the very least it should cover medically necessary abortions, as well as Plan B (the morning after contraceptive pill) and female contraception in general.

19 Democrats, including Tennessee's Lincoln Davis, have signed a letter (pdf) calling for the House to exclude abortion services from any public health care plan. According to them "about one third of women who would have had an abortion if support were available carried their pregnancies to term when the abortion fund was unavailable." Personally, I don't see the great news in finding a large number of women have babies simply because they don't have the cash to end the pregnancy...

The Cover-up Is Worse Than The Crime

That is generally true with most political scandals, as was the case with Bill Clinton and Mark Sanford. So, it appears, that Sen. Paul Stanley did little to cover up the "crime" of "allegedly" diddling around on his wife with his 23 year old intern. Someone attempted to blackmail him, and rather than try to pay the gent to keep quiet (as Sen. Ensign has his parents do with his mistress' husband), he called the TBI and had the alleged blackmailer arrested.

So, is Sen. Stanley done for? Its hard to say really. Yes, he is a hypocrite of the highest caliber due to his moralizing on the greatness of marriage and the need to keep unmarried (under the eyes of TN law) couples from adopting...but most people assume their elected leaders are hypocrites and liars (and quite often scumbags), so it is questionable whether Stanley can't come back from this political crisis.

As Kleinheider points out, the medicine might be worse than the disease for Democrats, if the next State Senator from the Shelby County district winds up being Stacey Campfield-lite, Rep. Brian Kelsey.

Either way though, being that Stanley is from an odd numbered district, his seat is up for election come 2010. In 2006, he won by over 14K votes (pdf). A not insurmountable obstacle for the Dems, but at the same time it was the closest election in that district in over a decade (Sen. Curtis Person Jr. was the previous representative). If he runs, and wins in the primary, this would probably be the best chance Dems have for taking this seat from Republican control, but it would still be a tremendously uphill battle.

TNDP Lands Big Name

Just confirmed at the Kitchen Cabinet, it appears that former President Bill Clinton will be the keynote speaker at the upcoming TNDP Jackson Day dinner. Regardless of what you think of his performance in the primaries last year, it'll likely be the most
interesting speaker in the years I've attended the event.

Update:

As I posted on Twitter, it appears that President Clinton was wooed to Tennessee by former Governor Ned Ray McWherter. If true (which I have every reason to believe it is), it would be interesting to see if the Former President makes a pitch for Gubernatorial candidate Mike McWherter in the process. If the President attends a fundraiser for him, it could potentially be a game-ender in the Democratic Primary race.

Update II:

TNDP confirms via text...

You are 1st to know: Keynote speaker for Jackson Day on 8/29 is President Bill Clinton. Tickets on sale Friday at noon CDT at tndp.org. Chip Forrester, Chair

And The Lord Said, "Let Them Pack Heat"

From the Dept. of Unlikely Sources, Councilman Mike Jameson invokes the Holy Father in his tacit disapproval of a measure to ban guns from Nashville's parks:

I’m not a gun nut. I don’t own one and I don’t like them. But you have an individual God-given right now to gun ownership. The problem we’ve got is that, if you are removing that ability even within a limited circumstance like in Metro parks, you’ve got to have a compelling interest.

I don't necessarily disagree...but if God's going around giving rights to people, hows about the right to drink a bottle of wine? Everyone seemed to be doing in the Bible, so why can't we carry a nice glass of vino into our fine local parks? Is it any less safe than a Glock?

C'mon my Irish brother, if you're gonna fight for protecting rights in parks, why not that one?

The Gallup Paradox

Well, either President Obama is in need of a serious course correction or he's doin' just fine...depends on which Gallup you talk to.

USA Today/Gallup shows the President ranking 10th out of 12 Presidents post FDR.

The Gallup Tracker shows President Obama ranking above Presidents Reagan, Bush, and Clinton and tying Nixon at this period in their Presidencies (info for LBJ/Truman/Ford is not readily available).

What gives? Beats me...probably statistical sample variations. But considering USA Today/Gallup's polling sample was three days, Fri-Sun, and showed Obama with a 55% approval rating; while Gallup's tracker, during those same three days, showed the President with a 61% approval rating; you'd think that it might behoove Gallup to note the discrepancies in their articles or press releases regarding their polls...but nah, it is much more interesting to write analysis under the supposition that said polls are infallibly correct, rather than note inconsistencies within the same polling company.

But what does all this mean? Rasmussen showing the President and Romney in a dead heat for 2012, Gallup showing his numbers slipping and health care plans less than popular? Not much. Obama has done as much or more than just about any President in his first few months since FDR. The public is being inundated with so many conflicting points of view on so many different topics that the issues are getting cluttered.

Ultimately, passing a health care proposal like the one in his platform is what will keep the Democrats in the White House come 2012. While the public might be skittish about a major overhaul, and the Republicans will play off those fears, once [if] it gets passed, the American people will be much more comfortable with both the President and the national health care policy.

Why Sarah Palin Can Win...

...because the Republican base is crazier than she is. You can feel the heat of this woman's visceral hatred for the President emanating from the computer monitor as she breathlessly waves her birth certificate "from the United States of America" which says she is an American, and expresses her dismay that our Kenyan born President doesn't have a similar document.



You almost have to feel sorry for Republican Mike Castle, who just wants to have a forum on Health Care, and instead has to put up with rightwing loons like this...of course, its not all that different from a House GOP caucus meeting, so I'm guessing he is used to it.

Bring Out The Haterade

Sifting through the campaign finance reports now, and one name on the Ward Cammack list pops up as potentially troubling. Gus Puryear, the Republican lawyer for Corrections Corporation of America and failed judicial nominee, who last year had a Fatwa put out on him by the Nashville Scene, gave Ward $250 back in March of this year.

Now they most likely know each other through the Belle Meade Country Club, a club whose membership packet comes with the racist label for many Nashville/Tennessee liberals. And it makes sense to go after the people you know to get the money you need. But given the Scene's recent campaign against Cammack, I wouldn't be too surprised to see them use this donation as another bludgeon. And, quite frankly, it would seem to raise concerns that Cammack is having to rely on members of the GOP establishment for funds...could the favors be returned should Cammack win the election?

Overall, looking at the financial reports, its hard to see how the Cammack campaign goes on much longer. They are burning money faster than they are raising it (and that includes $40,000 in loans from Ward himself) and there doesn't seem to be much traction for Cammack within the Democratic political establishment (at least in Nashville).

Its The 9th One I Believe

Adam Kleinheider did some digging through Sen. Roy Herron's financial disclosure and found some creative accounting that would make an Enron executive blush. Basically using funds raised past the July 1st deadline and his State Senate account to come up with his "over $650K" number.

It may seem cute and innocent over at Camp Herron, but it probably isn't a good idea to create issues of mistrust among the press and bloggers, or else that tag is going to stick for the rest of the campaign, and a stricter scrutiny will be placed on their announcements and releases.

Crazy Terrorist Loving Liberals!

Not only is Judge Sotomayor an unrepentant racist, but it appears she is now an unrepentant terrorist too!



This new TV ad (which probably will only run for free on cable news) is using her tenure on the board of the Puerto Rican Legal Defense fund as proof of her complicity with terrorists. It would appear they are referring to FALN, a Puerto Rican separatist group, who was responsible for some acts of violence in the US during the 70s and 80s. Basically, someone at the PRLDEF criticized the Mayor of New York for calling them "assassins," because some Puerto Ricans supported the cause. There isn't anything connecting Judge Sotomayor to this group save her connection with PRLDEF, but I guess that doesn't matter.

A similar attack was used against Harold Ford Jr. in his run for Senate in 2006. The Corker campaign used his Present vote on a non-binding resolution criticizing then President Clinton for pardoning some low level members of the organization.

Evil Republican Bastards!

That seems to be the crux of the argument behind the calls to fire Sec of State Tre Hargett and strong push to scrap our recently purchased touch screen voting machines in favor of the ol' #2 pencil and a piece of paper. Basically, because they are pointing out potential problems with the recently passed "voter confidence act," they are therefore in the process of trying to steal the upcoming election.

The latest salvo comes from Democratic Leader Gary Odom who says that there is no requirement to use 2005 voting equipment standards because the statute didn't say 2005. Now, perhaps he's right, but I do recall Rep. Gary Moore (D) stating, in a House Democratic Caucus meeting attended by bloggers, essentially the same thing the Secretary of State was saying, and tried to amend the law to reflect it.

The problem here is that if we simply ignore the newer voting equipment standards and go with older ones, we risk the chance that the next election can be overturned by a court. Logic would dictate that if a law calls for adhering to an independent body's rules and regulations, you'd go with the latest version, not pick and choose previous rules to adhere to.

If its so damned critical that we use paper ballots in 2010, why not simply call a special session to pass new rules to amend the law? I'd rather have this thing settled now than to have it play out in the courts for months after the election.

Nashville Gov't To Ban Discrimination

The Metro Council is poised to take up a non-discrimination ordinance which will make it "unlawful for the metropolitan government to fail or refuse to hire or promote, or to discharge any individual, because of such individual’s race, religion, creed, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, color, age, and/or disability."

Megan Barry is one of the lead sponsors of this provision, which differs somewhat from the controversial 2003 proposed ordinance which failed in an 18 to 19 vote. For one, it ads "creed" as well as sexual orientation to the list of protected classes...so, if there were any White Supremacists who've been denied employment as of late, feel free to get that employment application ready.

Ultimately though, I don't think this will be anywhere near as controversial as it was in 2003. While there are some conservative members on the council, the fact is that in 6 years views have changed fairly dramatically on the issue of gay rights. Whereas Howard Dean was "extreme" for his state's position on civil unions, that position has now become rather standard fare by most Americans, including quite a few Republicans.

So, this will almost assuredly pass, and I'd expect by a large margin. Will it have a dramatic substantive impact on the Government? Not likely, seeing as the Mayor has already made it executive policy not to discriminate on orientation...but codifying it in law could give gays and lesbians a better sense of job security.

My hope is that sometime in the next couple years, we can expand this to support domestic partnership benefits for same-sex couples. That would be a more substantive policy change, and would probably be more controversial.

McWherter and Herron Tied

The McWherter campaign is releasing their numbers, which show an almost identical amount to Sen. Roy Herron. In the 47 days since announcing they raised $650K and spend about $30K.

“I’m excited about the incredible outpouring of individual support and friendship I’ve received from Democrats all across our great state,” said McWherter. “Folks everywhere are stepping up to help get our campaign off the ground, and are firmly committed to doing whatever it takes to ensure that we elect a sensible leader with the skills needed to tackle our extraordinary economic challenges.”

They'd likely point out that all theirs is new money, while that has yet to be seen with Sen. Herron.

Update:

McMillan has released her numbers to the Nashville Post and shows a smaller sum of $300K being raised over the past 6 months, with $175K cash on hand.

Based on the initial reports, it looks like McWherter has the big bucks in his campaign coffers...his average donation was around $1,700. McMillan and Herron had more low dollar (relatively speaking) donations with an average around $400 and $330 respectively.

Still yet to come will be Ward Cammack's fundraising totals, and an indication of how much money he has been willing to personally spend, or whether he's been able to get some of his corporate buddies to pony up.

Correction, Ward released his numbers to the tune of about $200K.

The Green Candidate

Sen. Roy Herron is rolling in the dough according to his campaign announcement of reporting $650K for the semi-annual fundraising report, with $600K on hand.

“Old-fashioned hard work, brand new ideas and wonderful friends have been the keys to our fundraising success, and they are the keys to leading Tennessee forward in creating good jobs, strengthening education and improving healthcare. This far exceeds our goals and others’ expectations. This overwhelming support proves we are on track to get the support we need to win.”

We'll find out tomorrow how much of this was raised and how much transferred from his Senate account, which contained $282K at the end of 2008.

Most Democrats Not Running For Office Do...

Bill Clinton is "basically" now in support of same-sex marriage (as always, via ACK).

Which now leaves President Obama as probably the only Democratic Politician in the country to go from supporting full marriage rights to opposing them (a testament to his rapid rise from State Sen. from a liberal urban district to Presidential candidate in 4 years).

Into The Great Wide Open

It appears that the race for Governor is pretty much in a dead-heat for who gives a flip. On the Democratic side, a lot of people think Ned Ray is running for re-election, and on the Republican side, the only federally elected contestant leads the pack by about 7 points (SPR via ACK).

If the election to determine the Democratic nominee for governor were held today and you would likely vote in that primary, who would you vote for?

McWherter (23%)
Herron (13%)
Kyle (6%)
Cammack (5%)
McMilan (3%)
Other (16%)
Undecided (34%)

If the election to determine the Republican nominee for governor was held today and you would likely vote in that primary, who would you vote for?

Wamp (22%)
Haslam (15%)
Ramsey (7%)
Gibbons (4%)
Other (13%)
Undecided (39%)

I'm genuinely surprised at the numbers for McMilan, given her being the first of either party into the race, and her former position as House Majority Leader (not that more than 50 people outside of Nashville can probably name who that person is).

Now, from what I can tell this poll is of registered voters, which doesn't mean a whole lot for a primary race such as this. But, being the only independent poll out there that I'm aware of, it indicates good news for Mike McWherter (the name still carries weight), and for Zach Wamp who got trounced in fundraising by Haslam.

Why Is A GOP Governor a Fait Accompli?

Adam Kleinheider points out an interesting paradox. By most accounts, Phil Bredesen (D) has been a good Governor. We can quibble with some of his actions, and I've been known to take issue with his political prognostications, but overall he wins wide praise from both sides of the aisle, and that includes the Republicans running for Governor.

So, why is it, that when you ask most politicos (Democrat or Republican), they generally think a Republican will be the next Governor?

Is it because of the history of our election cycles over the past few decades, switching back and forth in eight year cycles from Lamar to McWherter to Sundquist to Bredesen?

Is it because they think that the Republicans have better candidates?

Is it because Tennessee seems to move ever closer to the more Conservative Southern states when it comes to national politics?

I can't really quite figure it out, although I generally agree with the assessment that a Republican will probably run the state in 2011. Could it be that this self-defeating notion alone could lead to a GOP victory?

We went from one of the least popular Governors in the history of the state (save Blanton), who was a Republican, to one of the more popular two-term governors in modern history, who is a Democrat. By all rational measures, Democrats have shown to be better administrators as of recent times, so why would voters be so eager to give the Republicans another shot to piss them off again? Or is it more ideological than partisan, in that Sundquist pushed for an income tax (viewed as a liberal idea) whereas Bredesen hasn't raised any significant amount of taxes except at the margins?

Swinging For The Fences

Maybe its just me, but I think the key to a good political ribbing or attack is subtlety...and the new press release from the TNDP is anything but subtle:

"Mr. Hargett's refusal to do the job he was sworn to do appears to be part of a nefarious Republican strategy to stand in the way of secure and verifiable elections in Tennessee.

"We deserve better. Mr. Hargett needs to go. That's why I'm calling on the General Assembly to remove him from office."

And...

"It's all beginning to look like an organized effort by the Republican Party to steal elections here in Tennessee."

And...

"It's obvious to me that Republicans are involved in a conspiracy to steal elections through intimidation, fraud, and denial of basic constitutional rights. This kind of behavior has to end. Hargett must go," Forrester concluded.

Look, I wasn't a big fan of Hargett being tapped to be the Secretary of State, but isn't this a bit overboard? I understand that a lot of people think paper ballots (you know, the things used in the Iranian election and Florida circa 2000) are the only thing standing in the way of the death of our Representative Democracy, but before making a lot of accusations, could we have a little bit of evidence first?

The main argument, not addressed in the press release, is that there isn't equipment available that meets the standards outlined in the new law. If there is that equipment available, wouldn't it be better to list a manufacturer's name, so that you could prove him wrong, rather than release a hyperbolic tirade with seemingly outlandish claims with very little to back them up?

Look, I'm sorry, I think the GOP is as evil as the next guy, but we are talking about the same equipment used in the last couple elections. The notion that the GOP (via the SOS) is involved in a massive conspiracy between 95 county election commissions to commit felonious election fraud is not backed up as of yet by any real evidence.

Feel Good Friday

Because we didn't get a chance to see him last night...

Eeeeasy Tiger

Harold Ford Jr. is urging the President and Congress to slow their roll on a new Health Care policy because we just haven't looked at the data carefully enough:

I don`t mean to suggest to the White House that health care`s not important, that it should not be pushed, but we now have to sit back, take stock of the data that we have, take an inventory, understand what direction we have to move and how much political capital that will take.

Yeah, some 60 odd years after President Truman called for a national health care policy, after decades of rapidly expanding health care costs far above the rate of inflation, its time to sit back and do some more research.

A new health care program, like the latest one proposed by the Senate and the President, is not only necessary from a policy point of view, but from a political point of view its critical towards any future success for the Democrats in Congress. If all we have to run on in 2010 is bailouts and a few road projects, we're fucked.

From a political point of view, the Cap and Trade bill has far more potential to be politically damaging with little in the way of political capital gained. But in terms of earning or keeping the faith of the American people, we have to get ourselves on the path to long term stability, and our current health insurance system is a severe tax and drain on our economy.

A Town Full of Mike Jamesons

A small town in Australia one ups Nashville by banning the outright sale of bottled water, whereas we just banned it in city government.

Yes, But At Least The South Has Good Manners

Time Magazine looks at the various possibilities for why Southern states tend to have the highest rates of obesity and concludes:

So there you have it. Southerners have little access to healthy food and limited means with which to purchase it. It's hard for them to exercise outdoors, and even when they do have the opportunity, it's so hot they don't want to.

Democratic Staffers

The TNDP has announced that Keith Talley, at the strong urging of Congressman Gordon's office, will be the new Communications Director for the Tennessee Democratic Party. Talley was formerly the Political Director for the House Democratic Caucus in the run up to the 2008 elections, though understandably the TNDP left that nugget off the resume when they put out the press release. From what I understand, part of the backroom deal to get the Congressional delegation and Governor on board with the TNDP was to allow them input into who the Communications Director would be.

Speaking of which, both the House and Senate Dem Caucuses have in recent weeks hired new Political Directors. I can't seem to find the name of the House PD, but on the Senate side, they have hired former Harold Ford Jr. assistant Claudia Weaver to run their campaign to staunch the losses incurred over the past couple cycles. During the 2006 Senate campaign, Weaver was in charge of operations in Chattanooga, where HFJ pulled off a surprising upset against Corker in the town he was formerly Mayor of. More recently, Claudia was elected to be the President of the Tennessee Young Democrats.

I'll update on the House side when I get more information.

Obama's Super-Secret Plan

Jeb Bush, the seemingly bright one of the Bush Brothers, is spouting off in interviews and seems to support the notion that President Obama is somehow sneaking up on the American people with his agenda:

Barack Obama would not have gotten elected if he'd let us in on his secret plan prior to the election. He would not have gotten elected if he'd said, "My idea is to create a $1.8 trillion deficit for the next fiscal year. My idea is to spend $750 billion [the president's budget estimate puts this figure at $630 billion] over the next ten years on a government-sponsored, government-subsidized health-care policy. My idea is to create a massive cap-and-trade system [based on the idea] that CO2 is [a] pollutant and we need to tax it in a massive way to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions."

Uh-huh, except, well, he sorta did say those things. Well, not in one paragraph, and he didn't plan on a "$1.8 trillion deficit," in large part because bailouts and stimulus plans weren't seen as a necessity until after his election.

But on Health Care, he articulated his plan on the website, and this archived page from February of 2008 shows that he would promote a national health care plan to augment the private health insurance market.

As for Co2 regulation, the President made clear in early 2008 that he supported a Cap and Trade system as well:

Cap and Trade: Obama supports implementation of a market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is necessary: 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Obama's cap-and-trade system will require all pollution credits to be auctioned. A 100 percent auction ensures that all polluters pay for every ton of emissions they release, rather than giving these emission rights away to coal and oil companies. Some of the revenue generated by auctioning allowances will be used to support the development of clean energy, to invest in energy efficiency improvements, and to address transition costs, including helping American workers affected by this economic transition.

So far, sans the stimulus package and bailouts, everything the President has done since taking office was part of his platform in the election. Now, some on the left are upset that he hasn't moved fast enough on parts of his agenda, and you can argue from the right that the President should readjust his agenda given the economic and budgetary constraints caused by the global recession, but he's still doing what he said he was going to do based on the platform that helped get him elected.

Republicans For Obama?

While it may not seem it given the high profile efforts to block the President's agenda, when you get to the votes of the matter, quite a few Republicans have lined up with the President on less publicized votes. Including our own Sen. Bob Corker who ranks in the top 10 of Senate Republicans in their voting with the President.

According to CQ Politics by way of DailyKos, Sen. Corker has supported the President's line 68% of the time, ranking him number nine among Republicans. Sens. Snowe and Collins were the most supportive, backing the President 92% of the time.

Sen. Alexander isn't far behind, with a record of supporting the President 65% of the time. Now, this isn't exactly an indication of liberalism on either of their parts. The vast majority of Republicans fall in the 50-70 range of agreeing with the President, and nearly all of those votes weren't very controversial.

But, all the same, given the President's large vote deficit in the 2008 election, its somewhat surprising to see that both Senators from Tennessee tend to steer clear of the crazy caucus within the GOP. Especially in Sen. Alexander's case given that he is in the bottom 10 of Republicans who stayed united with their caucus (81% party unity), even though he is Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference.

Hurray for Child Molesters!

Ned Williams seems pleased as punch that an adoptive father in North Carolina has been accused of raping his adopted son, as this one incident will likely be used over and over and over again by anti-gay activists to promote group homes for orphaned children:

This guy is the poster child for all the concerns that people have about endorsing adoption by folks who engage in homosexual activity...Thanks for the assist, Mr. Lombard!

Of course, you don't have to look too far to find plenty of examples of heterosexual men raping their foster children. Like James Spellman, a 57 year old man accused of raping his adopted daughter for upwards of 5 years before being caught by police.

Or how about Ernest and Windie Perry, some good ol' Christian folk from Tennessee who, along with one of their adopted daughter, were charged with aggravated child rape and abuse.

Or how about the DiMaria's, a Conservative Christian couple who adopted various girls with physical disabilities for the purpose of raping and exploiting.

Yeah, the Lombard case is tragic, and certainly evidence of the need for strict scrutiny by child protective services...but evidence of the follies of gay adoption? Hardly.

The Rise and Fall of Sarah Palin

Just when you thought things couldn't get weirder...Sarah Palin goes ahead and quits her job as Governor about a year and a half shy of the end of her first term.

Now, obviously the proper reaction for any sane person is, "what the fuck is she thinking?" But of course, when it comes to her supporters, reality and sanity are luxuries they simply cannot afford. So, you've got a host of commentators over at The Corner prattling on about the possibilities of her running for President in 2016 or 2020.

The real hard question they should probably ask themselves, is why? Why in God's name would you want this person to be your standard bearer? Seriously, what does she offer? She quite simply is not a stable person (and no, this isn't a statement of "sexism," Mark Sanford is just as unstable as she), she isn't extraordinarily intelligent, she hasn't offered much of anything in the way of policy or ideas that stray from the status quo of GOP conservative thought.

What were her strengths? She got knocked up and carried her down-syndrome baby to term...and...ummm....she's folksy? What else? Whatever shred of credibility she had just got blown out of the water and she tacitly admitted she couldn't handle the pressures of the job of being the Governor of one of the least populated states in the nation...how the hell could she handle being President?

Here is what I think happened. Gov. Palin came into office at a good time in Alaska. She oversaw the rewriting of oil and gas tax code which saw enormous profits for her state in the first year or so of office. Essentially her job was to find unique ways to dole out this windfall in Government revenues to the people, and she basically did it by writing checks to its citizens. Then the spicket started drying up, and some more difficult choices would have to be made...and who the hell wants to do that? Its so much more fun to be Robin Hood than it is to be the Sheriff of Nottingham. So, she bailed. Its time the GOP establishment does the same with her.

And Then There Were...Ummm...5?

Well, its now official, Senate Majority Leader Jim Kyle is going to be running for the Democratic Nomination for Governor, according to the Nashville Post.

Kyle is probably one of the more liberal of the candidates out there, representing a strongly Democratic district in Memphis/Shelby County. His biggest strength in the primary will be his name recognition in the Memphis/Shelby area. With what I predict to be low voter interest in the Gubernatorial primary, he stands to benefit greatly by the heated contest between Congressman Steve Cohen and King Willie Herenton.

Prepare To Be Informed

Whether you like it or not, it looks as if we are one step closer in Nashville to being able to see just how unhealthy our food is:

Gov. Phil Bredesen vetoed a bill Wednesday that would have overturned a Metro health board decision to require calorie counts on restaurant menus.

The bill said that only elected bodies could require nutritional information to be posted on restaurant menus. The Metro Board of Health, composed of mayoral appointees, voted in March to require restaurant chains with 15 or more outlets nationwide to put calorie counts next to menu items.

While I'm not entirely convinced about the efficacy of putting caloric information on fast food drive-thru menus, I do think a city has -in the interest of public health- the right to require their restaurants to comply with the rules.

The House Race To End All House Races

In what could be a game changer for the State next year, Rep. Curt Cobb (D - Bedford Co.) is resigning to take a position with the County Government, thus resulting in a special election for the 62nd House Seat.

In 2008, Rep. Cobb won re-election by a 55-45 margin against the Republican Barbara Blanton. Also that year Barack Obama got creamed by John McCain in that district, losing all but 2 of the 33 precincts represented by Cobb, and losing Bedford County by a 2-1 margin.

All this indicates a tough uphill climb for the Democrats to retain the seat in an environment where Republicans in the South are getting increasingly agitated by the direction our country is going (ie, away from them). The Democratic caucus is going to have to find a really popular figure in Bedford if they hope to keep this seat, and thus keep the shaky 50-50 split (when one includes Speaker Williams with the Dems) that we currently have.

Unclear (to me at least) is whether or not Republicans would be able to challenge Williams' speakership should they manage to win the seat. (UPDATE: I'm told it would take a 2/3rds vote to suspend the rules in order to boot Williams, which is not going to happen.)