A Date Of Infamy In The Conservative Revolution

There will be much exclaiming of joy and merriment today as a handful of races across the country seem to be looking good for the Republicans. Undoubtedly, if Republicans manage to sweep elections in NJ, VA, and NY-23, there will be tons of concern trolling by conservatives and a lot conservative dems scared of their own shadows. But really, what do these elections mean on a national level?

Virginia: Bob McDonnell has led in every poll but one over the past year. That includes the times when Obama's approval ratings were sky-high around the country, including Virginia. Will it be a rebuke of Obamacare if McDonnell wins tonight? No, it'll be a vote in favor of Bob McDonnell and a handful of other Republicans in the state.

New Jersey: I pity those folks. They have a wildly unpopular Governor, Jon Corzine, running against a wildly unpopular Republican. Both candidates have approval ratings in the 30s, and as a result they are neck-and-neck in the polls. While some think Corzine will pull it out because of historic underpolling of Dems in New Jersey, I actually think Christie will win because those who are voting for Daggett, but would otherwise vote for Christie, will probably get into the voting booth and be compelled to kick Corzine out of office more than Daggett voters leaning Corzine would feel compelled to keep him in there.

NY-23: A Republican seat that had the potential to swing blue but will still probably stay Republican. News? Hardly. What makes it news is the Conservative party challenger did well enough to force out the Republican. But this is only news on a national level because New York's politics are quite unique. They actually have viable, strong third parties and many candidates often run on more than one party banner. In New York the Conservative party is strong in parts of upstate NY who seek to distance themselves from the more moderate New York Republicans. As liberal Republicanism has died off nationally, the Conservative party's strength has been enhanced. Either way, expect the Democratic challenger to do better than any Dem in previous elections in that district.

Maine: Here is something that will matter on a national level, as voters have the chance to overturn a recent state law that allows gay marriage. Polls are a toss-up, but if the special election in Nashville over the English Only referendum taught me anything, its that you shouldn't bet on hate to motivate people to get out to the polls.