Why Is A GOP Governor a Fait Accompli?

Adam Kleinheider points out an interesting paradox. By most accounts, Phil Bredesen (D) has been a good Governor. We can quibble with some of his actions, and I've been known to take issue with his political prognostications, but overall he wins wide praise from both sides of the aisle, and that includes the Republicans running for Governor.

So, why is it, that when you ask most politicos (Democrat or Republican), they generally think a Republican will be the next Governor?

Is it because of the history of our election cycles over the past few decades, switching back and forth in eight year cycles from Lamar to McWherter to Sundquist to Bredesen?

Is it because they think that the Republicans have better candidates?

Is it because Tennessee seems to move ever closer to the more Conservative Southern states when it comes to national politics?

I can't really quite figure it out, although I generally agree with the assessment that a Republican will probably run the state in 2011. Could it be that this self-defeating notion alone could lead to a GOP victory?

We went from one of the least popular Governors in the history of the state (save Blanton), who was a Republican, to one of the more popular two-term governors in modern history, who is a Democrat. By all rational measures, Democrats have shown to be better administrators as of recent times, so why would voters be so eager to give the Republicans another shot to piss them off again? Or is it more ideological than partisan, in that Sundquist pushed for an income tax (viewed as a liberal idea) whereas Bredesen hasn't raised any significant amount of taxes except at the margins?