The Iranian Delusuion

In just a few days the Iranian people will go to the polls to vote for their favored candidate for President of their Islamic Republic, in all likelihood this initial election will result in a runoff between current President Ahmadenijad and his main rival Mir Hussein Moussavi.

From an American perspective, it seems we are in an "Anybody But Ahmadenijad" footing. The election of a potential "reformer" and relative moderate could give the Obama administration the cover to reinstitute diplomatic relations with Iran, and it might reduce fears that Iran is attempting to build Nuclear weapons (despite the Supreme Ruler -the guy who has final say in most matters- stating that Nukes were against the tenets of Islam and immoral).

But I'd caution the press and others to read too much into recent protests in Tehran and the mood of the people in the street. I know we like to pride ourselves on thinking we are different than every other country on Earth, but if you look at demographics and political ideologies in various countries, you begin to see trends. For starters, often times the biggest cities are the most "liberal". Now, "liberal" can mean different things to different people, but it generally means a more secularized version of the country, more educated, more "multi-cultural," more youthful, etc...so when we think of this election, try to think about what things were like for us in 2004.

In major cities like LA, New York, Washington DC, Miami, etc...you had to really search high and low to find some Bush supporters. There were protests, there were people sporting Kerry shirts in the streets, you had long lines at polling places indicating a good night for the Senator from Massachusetts. But, alas, it wasn't meant to be. Because President Bush was Conservative, and often times conservatives live in suburbs and rural areas where its more difficult for the media and especially international observers to get a read on the mood.

Likewise, in Iran, we'd make a mistake to read too much into the actions on the streets of Tehran as indicative of countrywide support. Of course, its possible that the polls are wrong and Moussavi has a good shot at winning (I certainly hope so), but in order to do it he is going to need a lot more than the youth concentrated in urban areas to get him to the finish line.

We also shouldn't assume that if Ahmadenijad does pull it out and gets re-elected, that it was automatically the work of some sort of "fraud". While not a democracy by our standards, Iran nonetheless is allowing the people of the country to decide their standard bearer for the world. If they choose "Mad Mahmoud," we should attempt to find a way to work with him if at all possible, because I don't think we can afford four more years of our current posture.