Making Every Vote Count

Clint Brewer, Editor of the Nashville City Paper, penned an editorial today in which he opined on the Fred Hobbs debacle first broken by their paper, as well as what Barack Obama needs to do in order to win in November.

The Left predictably classified all Tennesseans as a bunch ignorant hillbillies. The Right pointed to Southern Democrats’ own reluctance to back Obama as hope for Republicans that GOP nominee Sen. John McCain could crossover with Democratic voters not willing to pull the lever for Obama.

I contacted Brewer for some links which backed up his description of the "Left's" reaction, he referenced Wonkette's headline "Redneck Democratic Leaders Call Obama Terrorist," which is debatable as to whether she was referring to all Tennesseans or simply the two referenced in his original piece. I also attempted to follow his advice and do a Google blog search to find more examples, though I couldn't find anything matching his description...but absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence, so I'll let that point go. Brewer continues:

What does this aberration from a duly elected member of the state Democratic Party’s ruling body mean for Democrats here, Democrats nationally and Obama as a candidate?

For everyone involved in the Democratic Party, it means Obama must campaign in states like Tennessee to beat McCain and win the presidency.

Obamafanatics I know make the case that the senator from Illinois is going to usher in a new electoral math for the Democratic Party, where annoyingly moderate to conservative states like Tennessee don’t matter.

On the first point, I agree with Brewer. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that he gives enough credit to Obama, who held his first post-Hillary event last Thursday in the Appalachian city of Bristol, VA. He's held an event Saturday in North Carolina as well. Arguably, those states are very much "like" Tennessee, in that they are Southern, have portions of Appalachia, and have a mixed bag in terms of electoral results on the State and Federal level.

Now, I wish Obama would come here, because I have yet to see him in person, but when Brewer says "If Obama wants to win hearts and minds in places like Tennessee, he has to come here and campaign in earnest. That has not happened yet," that fails to account for why he had done so well in states like Utah or Alaska where he spent precious little (or any) time campaigning?

Yes, campaign stops are important, but they can only have an effect at the margins. The national campaign will determine which states are in play, simply visiting Tennessee will not change the overall dynamics on the ground. Obama's main problem in Tennessee is in the more rural areas of the state, the problem of course is that any amount of campaigning in those areas will have a very limited effect on the overall outcome of the race. If he goes to a diner, he'll manage to come into contact with at most about 20 people...not exactly an efficient use of his time.*

I hope he does make a few stops, I imagine that when the debate at Belmont is held here, it is likely that he'll have a campaign event or two in the runnup to that debate, but he campaigned like crazy in Pennsylvania, and yet, interviewer after interviewer still found people that thought he was a Muslim, or was a closet-terrorist, or that he was born in a foreign country, or those who were actually honest and told them they wouldn't vote for a black person.

I guess I simply disagree with Clint Brewer in his interpretation that campaign stops will drastically change the minds of people like Fred Hobbs (who is more mild than some others I've run into) who attempt to attack Obama's character as reasons to not vote for him. That 10% of the American people still think he is a Muslim can no longer be attributed to Obama's lack of trying to correct the record, as he has sent out mailers, done TV commercials, interviews, and said in debates numerous times that he is in fact a Christian...and yet, people still are determined to think otherwise.

Now, if I were to give Obama advice, I'd say he should call Fred Hobbs personally and discuss it with him. Yes, as one of 66 members of the TNDPEC he is not significant to the overall scheme of things, but from a public relations standpoint it would be good for him to personally confront his detractors and the purveyors of false information. He's called people to apologize for "messing up [their] game" and for calling someone a "sweetie," and released the recording of the call...so maybe he could do the same with ol' Fred.

*unlike in the primary, a candidate must get 50+1 in a state for any of the votes for him to count. If we want to fix this problem, we should abolish the electoral college in favor of a national popular vote; until then, states like Tennessee or other solid red-blue states will continue to get less attention from Presidential candidates.