Wishful Thinking

Democrats today are cheering over the fact that Travis Childers beat Greg Davis 54-46 in a special election for the Mississippi 1st Congressional district.

Republicans are cheering because Hillay got 67% of the vote in West Virginia, and one blogger says this is proof that "Barack Obama is such a miserable candidate that he’s going to get annihilated as well." [h/t Kleinheider]

OK, first with Childers. This is a great victory, no doubt. What I think this shows is that there is a passion for the Democrats this year, and a general malaise among the Republicans. Will he hold this seat in the General? Maybe, after all, Lincoln Davis sits in a fairly Republican district, yet he maintains strong victories. I think (especially in the South) incumbency is generally king.

As for West Virginia. A little perspective. Barack Obama has won 15 contests with over 60% of the vote, Hillary has won 2 (WV and AR). Obama won neighboring Virginia with 64% of the vote, and they have 13 electoral votes to West Virginia's 5.

We can splice and dice the results of the election 60 different ways and come to different conclusions, ultimately, we know that if Obama is the nominee, he's going to have to campaign harder in poor rural areas of the rustbelt; while if Hillary were the nominee she'd have to campaign harder in states like Wisconsin and Washington where she runs much tighter with McCain than Obama does.

As for the Republicans, rejoice! Take this win by a Democrat against a Democrat in West Virginia as a solid sign that you'll win in November no matter what. In fact, don't bother volunteering or donating, because its already in the bag....just sit back, relax, and you'll get that third Bush term you've been dreaming of.

p.s. My predictions were off because I didn't account for the 7% of West Virginians who said they wouldn't vote for either a black guy or a white woman, and chose Edwards instead as a protest vote.