Mountain State Predictions
Any guesses on what the turnout is going to be tomorrow in West Virginia?
In 2004, Kerry garnered 326K votes in the general election (375K self-identified Democrats voted). Assuming only those Kerry voters show up, and Hillary's margin is 70-30, she'd net 130 thousand popular votes or so.
If all 375K Democrats who voted in the 2004 election, including the 100K who voted for Mission Accomplished, Hillary would net around 150K votes; neither would be enough to erase the 220K votes out of North Carolina, but it'd certainly be a good talking point for them. Considering that was the highest turnout West Virginia has had in an election in 8 years, its hard to imagine this primary would deliver the 600K votes that Bill Clinton was hoping for...but stranger things have happened.
One of the many disadvantages going into this for Obama is that West Virginia University ended classes this past Friday, though they had some form of Early Voting apparently, the question remains whether Obama's campaign was able to capitalize on that (one of their ten offices was located in Morgantown, WV).
Either way, it will be interesting to see the color commentary on MSNBC, especially Terry McCaulife's new friend Pat Buchanan, who has the look of death in his eyes whenever he dares to speak of the prospect of a black President.
Going into WV...
Best Case: Clinton 65, Obama 35
What I think'll happen: Clinton 69, Obama 31
Worst Case: Clinton 76, Obama 24
Update:
More interesting West Virginia factoids. In 1996, Bill Clinton won a majority of the vote with 327,812. In 2004, John Kerry received 326,541 votes but lost to George W. Bush 56-43 (and the population has remained relatively stagnant). So, in raw numbers, Democrats haven't lost support, Republicans just brought out new voters.
Other fun facts, Jimmy Carter won West Virginia in 1980...one of seven states. Humphrey won it in 1968. The point being, that Sen. Clinton's claim that West Virginia is some sort of bell weather is a bit flawed...like most Southern states it began to drift rightward in the 1980s, except with a Southerner ran, which often trumps ideology and partisanship in the Southeast.
7 comments:
No real comment, just wasnted to share this article, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/is_barack_obama_using_george_b.html
Its an interesting take on a politician you've been waiting your whole life for. The more things change the more they stay the same.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/is_barack_obama_using_george_b.html for some reason the whole link didn't print previously
To put your article in context, Mr. Anonymous, the article you're referring to was written by:
"Reed Galen is a Senior Consultant with Goddard Claussen Strategic Advocacy in Sacramento, California. He was John McCain's Deputy Campaign Manager until July of 2007."
Clearly an unbiased and reasoned analysis by far. **insert sarcasm here**
Yes, he was. Doesn't make his points any less valid. We forget that Bush broke all fundraising records in 2000. We also forget that he was also, a new breed of politician, a "Compasionate Conservative". People who have met Bush often talk of his karisma. Obviously, logically you can't draw any conclusions from the comparisons, but i've said all along that Barry has learned things from George. He definatley shapes the arguement and attempts to define his opponent before they define themselves. I know Sean has disagreed with me on that before, but Barry very early drew the correlation between expierence and the "same old way of doing things". Hillary was trying to talk herself out of that box from the get go.
Right now he's attempting to define how the general election will be fought. I've always said he's a helluva politician, but lets not forget that's what he is.
I know Sean has disagreed with me on that before, but Barry very early drew the correlation between expierence and the "same old way of doing things".
Have I? I absolutely agree that Barack Obama drew a contrast between himself and Sen. Clinton, and rightfully so. When January '09 comes around, I'll have lived 20 of my 26 years on this Earth under the rule of a Bush or Clinton...a change is nice.
Now, I disagree with some of this guys points, namely that he only does well when he has a teleprompter. He does extremely well in conversational interviews, such as on Meet the Press, it just so happens in the ABC interview he was annoyed that 45 minutes of an hour and a half debate were focused on trivialities which don't have anything to do with the direction the President will take our country into.
Well Sean I believe if you look through the archives you'll see where you took me to task for suggesting that Barry defined Hillary before she clearly defined herself. I think the comment was something along the lines of "25 years in politics and she needs defining?" But whose splitting hairs.
I do disagee with your assertion that he's just as good without a teleprompter as he is with. Lot of uhs...and umms...and thats where he tends to make his mistakes, "Largest troops coming home since second World War", "talk to our enemies like Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Truman", "Bitter". Know what I mean Vern? The man who is the most brilliant speaker of our generation sure mispeaks alot when he's not on stage.
I think the comment was something along the lines of "25 years in politics and she needs defining?"
Doesn't sound like me, but if you say so.
"Largest troops coming home since second World War"
That was actually on a teleprompter, which indicates an error by either he or his speechwriter, which neither caught.
If you are speaking 6-7 hours everyday in front of a camera you are bound to make mistakes, he is human, nobody said otherwise.
So far, I haven't seen him "misspeak" three times, on separate occasions, about something he knew not to be true.
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