Gubernatorial Prospects

Clint Brewer at the City Paper writes up the chances for Democrats retaining the Governorship after Bredesen leaves in 2010. Of Kim McMillan, Brewer writes:

As for McMillan, she does know state government well, enough to make an initial fundraising showing. With only a stint as the former State House majority leader under her belt and from a small market like Clarksville, it is doubtful she can be competitive enough to face down a Republican like Bill Frist, Rep. Marsha Blackburn or Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam — all GOP possibles for the governor’s race that can either self-fund or raise money nationally.

A good point indeed...perhaps one of the benefits to running this early is that McMillan can begin to make connections with national organizations, Emily's List and Unions for example, to help her to raise funds on a national level.

As for Lincoln Davis, Brewer updated his column to say:

Secondly, like another 4th District Congressman from yesteryear, Davis may not translate well with urban voters. Former 4th District Congressman Van Hilleary could not connect with more astute suburban voters in 2002 and lost a lot of Republican votes to Bredesen. Davis may have the same problem only in a more extreme way as Democrats have to run up the score in Shelby and Davidson Counties to win statewide.

This has been my concern for a while. As more and more people migrate to Tennessee from around the country, and as our urban/suburban communities grow, I'm not sure the Southern good ol' boy shtick will play anymore on a Statewide level. His congressional career has been spent targeting his votes to a rural, often agricultural base, which isn't a big enough electorate statewide.

I'm beginning to think that calls for Bredesen to be a VP pick, or cabinet official, might actually boost the chances of Democrats getting the Governorship in 2010. 2 years of Governor Ron Ramsey would be a short term disaster, which could show the people of Tennessee again why they elected a Democrat in 2002. Otherwise, any Democrat running to secede Bredesen would have to deal with some of the mistakes he's made, and if the economy isn't back on its feet come election day in 2010, that would almost guarantee a GOP win.

(h/t Kleinheider)