Game Day

Will Obama's jumpshot get him an upset victory in Indiana and strengthen a victory in NC?

Will Clinton's incessant pandering play over among Hoosiers and North Carolinians?

Will the media project the results into some bogus narrative which focuses on middle-aged white men who make under $50,000 and don't have a high school degree?

I don't know about the first two, but the latter is the most likely.

As we head into election day, I think Barack Obama's chances are better today than they were 4 or 5 days ago. Looking at the Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama's national number has slowly climbed back up, gaining a point every day, while Hillary bleeds support (similar findings in Gallup).

In the Zogby Indiana and North Carolina tracking poll, Obama is the front-runner in both contests. However, they have a "someone else" category which I'm thinking is basically an "I want a white male" category...which I think favors Hillary and Bubba.

Ultimately, while I was concerned that Hillary's gas tax pander might hurt Obama, I think its had the effect of moving the debate back to policy (though I'm surprised the media hasn't combed through Wright's records to see his opinion on gas taxes), and also plays into character traits.

For Hillary, it can either play into this notion that she is a 'fighter' for the working class, or it can play into her dishonest traits and the notion that the Clinton administration governed on polls, and not principle.

For Obama it could play into the 'elitist' claim, or it could play into his theme of changing Washington and his inherent honesty with the American people.

My gut feeling is that this is a net positive for Obama, but I'm sure we'll find out in the exit polls tonight.

Indiana:

Best Case - O 51 C 49
What I think - C 53 O 47
Worst Case - C 55 O 45

North Carolina:

Best Case - O 57 C 42
What I think - O 54 C 46
Worst Case - O 51 C 48